It’s not even worth my time or your time to talk about Manchester City in the Champions League Group G. They are going to win this group and the price is insanely too high, so let’s move on.
Champions League Odds & Picks
I think most people are expecting this group to be pretty straightforward, but I do believe that Red Star Belgrade can play spoiler and potentially send RB Leipzig to the Europa League.
RB Leipzig lost Christopher Nkuku and Dominik Szoboszlai in their attack, but retooled with Lois Openda, Xavi Simons and Benjamin Sesko, so there isn’t going to be much of a drop off. The biggest loss for RB Leipzig was Josko Gvardiol. He’s a world class defender and the centerpiece around RB Leipzig’s build up play. They signed Castello Lukeba from Lyon who is a promising talent, but the Leipzig defense will take a step back from allowing 0.86 npxG last season under Marco Rose.
Leipzig are also dealing with some injuries. Willi Orbán, who is their rock in the middle of the defense now that Gvardiol is gone, is out until the end of November.
The depth in their attack is little questionable as well with Christoph Baumgartner and Dani Olmo likely missing out on the Young Boys match and potentially the Manchester City match on October 4th.
Best Bet
I don’t think I’ve seen a team in the Champions League consistently put up expected goals numbers like what Red Star Belgrade consistently do in the Serbian league. Last season they averaged 2.54 xG per 90 minutes, while only allowing 0.96.
Now, the Serbian league is not a very difficult league, but they’ve been Europa League mainstays for years now. Last season they drew Monaco in their group and held their own in both matches against them with the combined xG being only 2.2 to 2.9.
They have to open their campaign at Manchester City, but that means they get the benefit of playing Manchester City in Serbia on the final day of the group stage when City could already have it wrapped up and be rotating players.
If you want a long shot on this group, Red Star Belgrade to advance at +700 is worth a shot.
