With two fixtures remaining, all is left to play for in Group D in the Champions League.
Entering the competition, this group – on paper – appeared to be the most even and that statement has come to fruition through each side’s first five matches.
As it stands, Tottenham lead the group with eight points, Sporting and Frankfurt both sit on seven – Sporting owns the tiebreaker – while Marseille bring up the rear with six points.
But, how should bettors approach the final two matches? Without further delay, allow me to present my best bet for each fixture.
Group D Champions League Best Bets
Marseille vs. Tottenham
| Marseille Odds | +195 |
| Tottenham Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Will the sting of that disallowed winner linger with Harry Kane into Matchday 6? Let’s hope so.
This play is largely a function of Spurs’ injury crisis in attack. Both Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison will miss the visit to France, leaving manager Antonio Conte with only Kane and Heung-Min Son up top.
Without those two talents in the lineup, it’s been Kane who has stepped up and created the lion’s share of chances for Tottenham. Across Tottenham’s last three UCL fixtures, the England captain has accumulated 2.6 expected goals (xG).
Plus, across Tottenham’s last five fixtures in which they have scored at least once, Kane has produced a goal in three.
On the flip-side, Marseille have struggled to defend at home against top opposition. In five fixtures against Nantes, Lille, Frankfurt, Sporting and Rennes, they have kept zero clean sheets and has allowed at least 0.75 xGOT in all of them.
Considering the importance of this fixture for Tottenham, expect Kane to get on the scoreboard at least once. Back his anytime goal market to +125.
Pick: Harry Kane to Score (+135)
Sporting CP vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
| Sporting Odds | +135 |
| Frankfurt Odds | +195 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-120 / -102) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Personally, I’m quite surprised at this line on Sporting, especially considering they dominated the reverse fixture.
When playing on Matchday 1 in Germany, the Portuguese outfit won 3-0. Although they over-performed the underlying metrics, they still won that battle 1.7-0.35 in terms of xGOT, per fotmob.com.
Plus, bettors are forced to get creative in evaluating Sporting following a red card in each fixture against Marseille, but this is a side that dominated Tottenham across two legs. For those two fixtures, Sporting have a +1.9 xGOT differential, including a 3.12-1.38 shellacking at home.
On the flip-side, Frankfurt have struggled immensely away from home this season. In seven combined Bundesliga and UCL road fixtures, the German outfit has a +0.31 xGOT differential, including a -0.47 xGOT differential in the Champions League.
If Sporting are able to keep all 11 players on the pitch, expect them to cruise into the knockouts. Bet the hosts’ draw no bet line up to -145.
Pick: Sporting – Draw No Bet (-140)
