Copenhagen vs Galatasaray Odds
| Copenhagen Odds | +170 |
| Galatasaray Odds | +137 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Copenhagen and Galatasaray meet in Denmark in a match that will decide who goes to the round of 16.
After holding Bayern Munich to a 0-0 draw in Germany, Copenhagen are now the favorites to advance. They've been a bit fortunate to get to this position after needing a red card and some magic to beat Manchester United, but they are now in the driver's seat to make it to knockout round for the first time since 2011.
The champions of Turkey have been the most entertaining team during the Champions League and for them it's very simple, win and you're into the knockout round. They had some late heroics the last time they played Copenhagen, scoring two goals in the final 10 minutes to draw 2-2. They've played incredibly brave as underdogs against both Bayern Munich and Manchester United, but now the pressure is going to be on them as favorites.
Here is how I'm betting Copenhagen vs Galatasaray.
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Copenhagen
The scenario here for Copenhagen is pretty simple. If they win. or draw with a Manchester United draw or loss to Bayern Munich, they are through to the round of 16, which would be a massive accomplishment for the Danish side.
They were incredibly impressive in their last match against Bayern Munich, holding the defending Bundesliga champions to a 0-0 draw and holding them to 0.7 xG. That's now two matches where they've held maybe the best offense in the world under one expected goal.
Copenhagen are likely to sit in their low block that they have been effective with, but there is going to be acres of space if they simply try to play balls over the top of Galatasaray’s counterpress. They’ve been deadly on the counter so far this Champions League group stage and showed that in the first match in Turkey, when they went up 2-0 on a couple of counterattacks.
Even though they've put up back-to-back great defensive performances against Bayern, their other two matches against Manchester United were pretty bad. In the second match in Copenhagen they had already conceded over two expected before the Marcus Rashford red card in the 40th minute. Manchester United, much like Galatasaray, are a direct fast tempo team, so it's going to be a much different type of opponent than that of Bayern Munich.
Galatasaray
When you play a match with Galatasaray, it is going to be fast paced and it is going to turn into chaos. Since Galatsaray are not a team that likes to use a lot of short passes and build out of the back and instead likes to use a lot of vertical passes, it creates a very back and forth type match.
Every single match in the group stage for Galatasaray has had at least three goals scored and all four matches against Manchester United and Bayern Munich has had at least three expected goals created as well. In the current tiebreaker scenario, they have to go for the win because a draw wouldn’t be good enough.
The amount of talent and experience Galatasaray have in their attack is unreal for a club outside of one of Europe's top five leagues. Marco Icardi is having a fantastic Champions League campaign already, scoring two goals. They also have the likes of former Crystal Palace legend Wilfred Zaha and Chelsea's Hakim Ziyech, who have contributed three goals as well.
The problem that exists for Galatasaray in this competition and specifically in this match is they are not a good defensive team and they are going to have to be very aggressive out of possession. They have been a good pressing team during this competition, forcing 53 high turnovers and holding a PPDA of 9.8, both of which are third among all Champions League teams. However, once teams beat the first line of pressure, there are acres of space with numerical advantages, which is why Galatasaray are allowing 1.79 xG per 90 minutes during this group stage.
Copenhagen vs Galatasaray
Prediction
I really don't see how this match doesn't completely go off the rails like every single Galatasray match has during this group stage.
Galatasaray only created 1.1 xG in the first meeting with Copenhagen, but they were constantly in and around the Copenhagen penalty area. They had 18 box entries and an xThreat of 1.74, so if they get on the end of a few more of those passes they will be creating high quality chances. All it's going to take is Galatasaray being more clinical in the final third and then this match will open right up.
Because Galatasaray have to be so aggressive, that is going to leave so much space on the counter for Copenhagen to cause problems, which is exactly what happened in the first meeting in Turkey.
I have 3.4 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
