Inter Milan vs RB Salzburg Odds
| Inter Milan Odds | -400 |
| RB Salzburg Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
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Inter Milan look to stay undefeated in group play and take a strangle hold on the top spot in Group D when they host Austrian champions RB Salzburg.
The Italian side is in perhaps the best form of anyone in the world right now. Simone Inzaghi's men have won seven of their first nine matches in Serie A and have outscored their opponents 24 to 5. They were incredibly dominant in their last Champions League match against Benfica, winning 1-0 but out-creating them 3.8 to 0.3 on expected goals (xG).
Salzburg had a fantastic result in their opening Champions League match, winning 2-0 against Benfica, but they were pretty thoroughly dominated in their last match by Real Sociedad. Their results in the Austrian Bundesliga have not been encouraging as well, as they only have one win in their last five matches. Two of those results were losses to Blau-Weiß Linz and LASK, which is pretty concerning considering last season they lost only once and were on a 37-match unbeaten streak domestically before the loss to Blau-Weiß Linz.
Here is my Inter Milan vs RB Salzburg prediction.
Inter Milan
Inter are an incredibly difficult team to beat because they play much different way than a lot of the top clubs in the world. Inter are primarily a transitional team looking for quick counterattacks while sitting in a 5-3-2 out of possession. They largely benefit against teams that like to press high and are incredibly solid at playing the ball vertically to bypass the opponent's press to create that transition opportunity.
Inter's system is largely built on being solid defensively. While they will hold a high amount of possession against smaller sides, Simone Inzaghi's principles are to be incredibly difficult to break down. Playing five at the back and often being very passive allows them to not only be solid, but it allows their opposition to try and overload the last line of defense. So, when they do win the ball, they have numerical advantages in counterattacking opportunities.
The defensive numbers have been fantastic so far for Inter this season. They've allowed only 0.72 npxG per 90 minutes and less than 10 shots per 90 minutes. Being passive not only allows you to stay solid out of possession, but also allows Inter to be really good defending in transition, which is big against a team like Salzburg. If you look through the types of teams they've played – Salernitana, Torino, Cagliari, Sassuolo and Empoli – they held every single one of those opponents under 1 xG and should be able to do the same against Salzburg.
RB Salzburg
The thing that we always know with Red Bull clubs is they have an identity of how they want to play. It's all high intense pressing and putting an emphasis on being really good in transition. However, in this sort of matchup, it's really a terrible way to play against Inter. What you will see from Salzburg is they will play out of some version of a 4-3-1-2, looking to create overloads in the central part of the pitch and play their transition opportunities through there.
Salzburg have shown that they can hang in the Champions League with the big boys and be effective not having the ball for a majority of the match. In the past three Champions League seasons they have finished with a positive xG differential despite year after year losing their top talent to bigger clubs. The thing is, their success has largely come against possession-dominant teams who are mostly not good defending in transition.
This year was no different, as they lost their best two attacking players, Noah Okafor and Benjamin Sesko. However, this Salzburg team just isn’t at the level of some of the past teams that have gotten results in the Champions League. They are sitting at a +0.74 xGD per 90 minutes this season in the Austrian Bundesliga when two years ago they were at +1.45 per 90 minutes.
Inter Milan vs RB Salzburg
Prediction
This match sets up pretty perfectly for Inter if Salzburg play their usual high pressing, high intensity style. However, we've seen many times in the Champions League the Austrian champions play more passively in a mid to low defensive block to avoid getting exposed if they are not able to force turnovers or close the opponent down via the press.
I also don't really know how Salzburg score here. Their offense has clearly taken a big hit since Okafor and Sesko left the club and were very poor at home against Real Sociedad, creating just 0.6 xG against a very comparable defense to the one they will facing against Inter. Plus, Inter are very difficult to beat in transitional moments, which is really the only way Salzburg are going to score here, so I think the pace of the match is going to be pretty slow with Salzburg not taking too many chances when they are out of possession.
So, I like the value on the under 3 at its current price.
