PSG vs AC Milan Odds
| PSG Odds | -143 |
| AC Milan Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
AC Milan have played two Champions League matches and there's yet to be a goal scored in either match. Milan have been the better side in both of their matches against Newcastle at home and away at Borussia Dortmund, but Milan's passive nature in and out of possession and some bad finishing variance has led to two points from two matches. The draws have enabled Stefano Pioli's side to stay right in the heart of the group, with first place Newcastle sitting on four points, PSG right behind them on three, Milan two and Dortmund far from out of it with one.
PSG and Milan will face off twice in the next two weeks against one another and two conservative possession managers are set to duel. Newcastle's physical and aggressive press really rattled PSG into multiple high turnovers and big scoring chances for the Magpies. Milan approaches matches considerably differently, though, and I expect PSG to have most of the possession but consistently be weary of Rafael Leão on the break in transition.
As dominant as Kylian Mbappé is as a creator and scorer for PSG, this total is a touch high and should be lined closer to 2.5 at even money in my view.
Here is why I'm playing the under in PSG vs AC Milan.
PSG
PSG have dramatically improved their underlying numbers under Enrique in France. They've averaged 2.06 non-penalty xG per match this season and more impressively they have conceded just 0.78 per match. The main improvement hasn't come in attack — those numbers are quite comparable – despite losing both Neymar and Lionel Messi. PSG conceded 1.2 xG per match in France last year because they had three players doing almost no defensive work. Now that the group is more well rounded and can press and possess more effectively, there's fewer holes this season.
Only Nice have conceded fewer xGA per match than Enrique's side. The 4-0 win against Marseille, 3-1 win against Lens, 3-0 win against Rennes and 2-0 win against Dortmund showed just how good this defense can be. In their six toughest matches of the year (including Nice and Newcastle), PSG have conceded a total of 5.2 xG.
Enrique has improved them defensively by having a lot more of the ball. They're conceding one fewer shot per match and the average shot distance allowed has lengthened. Against a usually elite shot stopper in Gianlugi Donnarumma, it's difficult to score on PSG. Newcastle put four on them, but even that came on 1 xG in total.
2021-22: 63% possession
2022-23: 60% possession
2023-24: 70% possession
Given how little Milan press on the ball, I have no doubt that PSG will have plenty of the ball in this match. The major key defensively here is Achraf Hakimi, who will have the matchup defensively with Leāo. Hakimi's not known necessarily for his defense, but his plus athleticism and pace should help prevent Leão from single-handedly carrying the offense.
AC Milan
Milan's attack ranks 14th in Serie A in shots per 90 after a weekend defeat to Juventus at home. The attack isn't getting enough production out of the non-Leao players right now. For example, Christian Pulisic's four goals and one assist in 6.8 90s seems excellent at surface level. That's been fine, but the underlying production suggests that there's major regression looming. Pulisic has managed 11 total shots in that time frame in Italy. Even if you include the CL data, Pulisic has 13 total shots.
We also might finally be reaching the age where Olivier Giroud is showing his age. The French legend has a solid 0.84 xG + xA per 90, but when you take out penalties, it's alarming. Giroud has managed 10 shots this season, three of them penalties. He's at 0.17 NPxG per 90 thus far. It's true that Milan have attempted the third-most shots in the Champions League thus far and haven't scored, so you could argue that positive finishing regression is coming for this attack.
But the market is much higher on the true talent of this attacking system than I am. As a result, I'm looking to consistently play against this attack, as I did with the under 2.5 on Sunday against similarly passive Juventus.
PSG vs AC Milan Prediction
Champions League Odds & Picks
A matchup of two managers who love to have the ball and take no chances in possession could lead to a rather dull watch. The main key in this group of death — especially early in the group — is to not lose matches. Milan's defensive numbers remain excellent – Juventus created nothing prior to the Milan red card on Sunday. Pioli's side remains top five in box entries and xThreat allowed. Despite some other middling numbers, Milan don't need to have the ball to be good defensively.
I have this projected right at 2.5 goals and would bet under 2.5 at anything plus money.
