Real Sociedad vs Benfica Odds
| Real Sociedad Odds | -125 |
| Benfica Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +105 / -134 |
Real Sociedad have a chance to book their spot in the Champions League round of 16 with a win at home against Portuguese side Benfica in the early window on Wednesday. Benfica have failed to earn any points from their opening three matches, losing at home to Real Sociedad and RB Salzburg and losing at Inter Milan. Benfica won a difficult group over Juventus and PSG last year and made consecutive runs to the quarterfinals, but Roger Schmidt's side is nearly drawing dead in this year's competition.
Sociedad's defensive press and counterattacking abilities make them a difficult matchup for Benfica, whose defensive numbers in Portugal have taken a clear step back this season compared to last. Benfica also don't have the same attacking firepower of years past, when Darwin Nunez and Gonçalo Ramos filled up the stat sheets. The replacements lack real explosiveness, and it has made them considerably easier to defend out of possession.
Let's dive into my Real Sociedad vs Benfica prediction.
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Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad enter this match just seventh in the La Liga table, mostly because they've had some terrible late game variance. Sociedad conceded a stoppage time equalizer to Rayo Vallecano, a late penalty winner to Atletico Madrid and a stoppage time winner to Barcelona on Saturday. Sociedad also blew late leads to Girona and Celta Vigo in the opening two match weeks. On one hand, you could view that as a criticism of their attack's ability to generate separation from other sides.
This is more a matter of variance and running bad to me though, as the overall underlying numbers look pretty comparable to last year. The defense has taken a step back in total xGA conceded, but the even game state numbers are exactly the same as last year when you look at xG difference per 90. They do naturally play more defensively with a lead and have struggled to find that second goal on the counter in these game states.
The same was true in the away match at Benfica in the first leg. Brais Mendez scored to put Sociedad up 1-0 in the 63rd minute, and then Sociedad only attempted one more shot in the last 30 minutes of the match. Benfica couldn't create much of anything either (four low quality shots), but the Sociedad attack turtling up with a lead makes them vulnerable to get caught out and drop points.
Benfica
Benfica did manage to get 18 touches in the Real Sociedad penalty area in the first meeting between these two teams. The problem is that they only turned those 18 touches into 10 total shots and 0.5 expected goals. It's been a common theme for Benfica in this Champions League. They're not getting totally overwhelmed in the midfield, as they also managed 17 box touches against Inter Milan at the San Siro. They're just not able to take advantage of when they do progress the ball into the opposition penalty area because the attack isn't nearly as talent when it's playing with two wide forwards — David Neres and Angel Di Maria — as the primary chance creators.
Benfica entered match week 4 with the second-worst underlying xG difference in the entire competition. They were in a tier alongside Young Boys and Red Star Belgrade, two of the consensus worst three teams in the competition coming into the group stage. The defense hasn't really improved much in Portugal either. They had a couple of solid games, but also conceded 1.3 xGA to Casa Pia and 1.0 to Estoril in two of their last three matches in the Primeira Liga.
They only conceded 20 goals and 23 xG in the entirety of the Primeira Liga season last year (34 matches). Through the first 10 matches of the new year in Portugal, they've already conceded 10.3 xGA. That's a jump from 0.68 xGA per match to 1.03. They've conceded 8 xG in three matches (two penalties), third-worst in the CL. The lack of midfield ball winning has left the backline more exposed to conceding big scoring chances.
Real Sociedad vs Benfica
Prediction
I've bet against Benfica in all three of their Champions League matches this season and still don't think the market has gone far enough in downgrading them in this competition. This team is on the downswing from that elite cycle of talent and the market is still pricing them as close to an equal with Sociedad, which I disagree with.
I'd bet Real Sociedad to win this match at -130 or better.
