Arsenal vs Man City Odds
| Arsenal Odds | +190 |
| Man City Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Pep Guardiola and Man City look to continue their dominance over Arsenal and the rest of the Premier League on Sunday morning.
The last time Arsenal beat City in the Premier League was way back in December 2015, when an Arsene Wenger led Arsenal beat Manuel Pellegrini's men 2-1 at the Emirates. However, this is not the same old Arsenal that people have become accustomed to seeing. Mikel Arteta has proved that he is a tactical genius after picking up right where they left off last season.
City are still the same City so far this season. Simply put, they are dominant. Prior to their loss last week at Wolves, City had a perfect 18 points from a possible 18 and rarely looked threatened. However, they have not faced a side of the quality of Arsenal yet, with this being their first real test of the season.
This is shaping up to be marquee match of the season so far, with both sides looking to win the Premier League. Let's get in to how I see this one playing out and what bet I will be playing for Arsenal vs Man City.
Arsenal
Arsenal are currently sitting third in the Premier League after thrashing Bournemouth 4-0 at the Vitality. This will be their biggest test of the season so far, having the chance to take control of the top of the Premier League.
There has been a lot of discussion about whether or not Arsenal have the firepower up front to contend with City this season. They have shown that they have more than enough in the last couple of weeks. Goals from Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz and Ben White in their last match proved that they have enough muscle going forward to put up a fight for the Premier League title.
Arsenal are second-best in xGA having only conceded 6.1 so far, best in xGA for set pieces with just 1.09 and their average PPDA is just 9.1, making them an elite pressing side. They also have David Raya, who is a much better shot stopper than Aaron Ramsdale. This Arsenal side is arguably on par with City for the best defense in the league.
They have also shown that they can control a match like no one else but City are able to do. Averaging a 14.57 sequence time, as well as 4.78 passes per sequence, this side is the closest thing that the league has seen to Manchester City since Pep Guardiola took over.
The main concern I have in this match is that Saka and Martinelli are both doubtful, and they are such an important piece of the puzzle for this side's style of play.
Man City
City dominate possession in nearly every match they play, except against Arsenal. In their two matches in the league last season, the possession was split 50/50 and then 60/40 to Arsenal. This seemed to catch the Gunners off guard as they had no idea how to defend City in transition. The aggregate score over those two matches finished 7-2 in favor of the Champions.
Attacking-wise, City have been very good, over-performing their xG by 2.6. This is due to the finishing quality of Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez specifically. The place where they have really excelled is their defense. Conceding only 5.1 xGA is the best in the league by a whole goal, with Arsenal being second.
The absence of Rodri due to suspension is going to be vital, as City rely on him so much to break up play in the middle of the park and carry the ball forward. No one in the world can do the job that Rodri does for Pep as he is so physically dominant yet such a good passer of the ball. He links everything together that players like Mateo Kovacic and Matheus Nunes just cannot do yet. I see the absence of Rodri obviously benefiting Arsenal because it is much easier for Arteta to prepare for Kovacic and Nunes than it is for someone as versatile as Rodri.
City are one of the best sides in the world, but Arteta is a genius tactically and he will be able to take advantage of the massive absence in the middle of the park for City.
Arsenal vs Man City
Pick & Prediction
With Saka and Martinelli being doubtful for this match, as well as the tactical acumen that both of these managers possess, I believe this may be a rather uneventful match. Similar to the Community Shield in August, the tactics may cancel each other out and cause a stalemate this Sunday at the Emirates.
There are too many injuries and uncertainties with the starting lineups to be able to pick a side in this one, so I am going to be playing the under 2.5 at +105.
I have this total at just over 2.4 goals, so while I see just a smidge of value, I also like the spot. Not having Rodri, Saka or Martinelli in this match may cause both managers to play a more conservative way as it is not a match either side will want to lose, therefore under 2.5 goals is the play.
