Arsenal vs. Newcastle Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -130 |
| Newcastle Odds | +370 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-134 / +106) |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up to the minute soccer odds here. | |
A huge top-four matchup takes place at the Emirates on Tuesday as Arsenal battles Newcastle.
The Gunners have been in incredible form this season in the Premier League and now have a seven-point gap between them and Manchester City. Arsenal have dropped just four points all season, but this will be one of their toughest tests to date.
Newcastle are surprisingly inside the top four and showing no signs of slowing down. The Magpies have lost just one match all season long, which has put them in third place, only two points behind second-place Manchester City. However, this is by far their toughest test so far this season.
Arsenal Need to Keep Focus on Counter-pressing
Arsenal at home this season are a perfect 7-0-0 with a +11.6 xGD and have conceded only 5.9 expected goals in those seven matches.
One thing Arsenal did such a good job against Brighton, which will be crucial in this match against Newcastle, is their counter-pressing. Brighton is one of the best teams in the Premier League at not only playing through pressure but playing through the middle of the pitch. Arsenal forced six high turnovers against Brighton, which is a top-seven team at playing through pressure. If Newcastle have one weakness, it’s that they are very susceptible to the counter-press, as they’re 12th in Offensive PPDA.
Well, that was fast. 😳
Bukayo Saka fires Arsenal into the lead in just the second minute!
📺 @nbc and @peacock#MyPLMorning | #BHAARSpic.twitter.com/jWB9UgByG9
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) December 31, 2022
Arsenal don't really have a weakness defensively at the moment either. They’re the best team in the Premier League at defending in transition, as they allow the fewest progressive passes + dribbles per 90 minutes. They allow the fewest crosses completed in their own box, they’ve allowed the second-fewest passes into their own penalty area, and they have conceded the second-fewest big scoring chances.
Arsenal have been overperforming offensively, but they have still created 11.5 expected goals in their last five matches and created just five big scoring chances against a top-seven defense at their own ground.
Pressure Key for Newcastle
Newcastle’s success this season has mainly been at St. James Park where they are a +11.2 xGD. Away from home is only a +1.9 xGD in eight away matches. Newcastle has also played three big six teams away from home – Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester United, whom we can all agree are worse than Arsenal. And Newcastle lost the expected goals battle in all three of those matches.
Newcastle’s defense has been outstanding this season. They are allowing just 0.91 npxG per match and are top five in xThreat allowed, passes allowed into the penalty area and xThreat. However, the six of their 17 opponents that have created over 1 xG include Liverpool, Manchester City, Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford, Tottenham and Southampton. So, Arsenal should be able to create a decent number of chances.
The Magpies are one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League and are fourth in PPDA and second in high turnovers. If Arsenal does have a weakness, it's playing through pressure, as they're seventh in Offensive PPDA.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle Pick
Arsenal have also done a great job creating overloads in the wide areas, as Granit Xhaka has been getting forward a lot more into the No. 8 role, while Odegaard has been allowed to roam to create those overloads, which is why Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli have had so much room up the flanks. Kieran Trippier is not the best defensive right back in the world, and Newcastle is going to be without Matt Targett on the left, so Arsenal should be able to exploit Newcastle in the wide areas. Also, Alexander Isak still out for Newcastle.
Quite simply, Arsenal are in tremendous form and are showing no signs of slowing down. More importantly, the price on Arsenal is far too cheap at -121 (BetRivers), as I have them projected at -143.
Pick: Arsenal -121
