Arsenal vs Southampton Odds
Arsenal Odds | -500 |
Southampton Odds | +1600 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-225/ +175) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+105/ -143) |
| Odds via Bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Arsenal looks to extend their lead at the top of the table with a victory over Southampton to kick off this weekend's Premier League action.
The Gunners could build a seven-point lead over Manchester City in second, with the two clubs meeting Wednesday in the biggest EPL match of the season.
Meanwhile, the Saints are in a battle of their own, fighting to avoid relegation and entering this fixture at the foot of the league table.
These are the types of matches title contenders have to win and I expect Arsenal to get back on track on Friday.
Arsenal
Everything was in the Gunners’ hands to secure the Premier League title until they squandered the lead in back-to-back draws with Liverpool and West Ham. However, both of those results came on the road.
Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has been dominant at the Emirates Stadium, winning the past four on the bounce and owning a 7-0 record against sides in the bottom half of the EPL table.
The Cityzens are also the only team that has accumulated more points at home this season in the English top flight.
According to fbref.com, the Gunners are second in xGDiff at home (+19.9) and have generated more expected goals at home (34.9) than Manchester City.
Southampton
For as poor as this season has gone, Southampton comes into the weekend just four points from safety — though they are running out of games to pick up the points.
The Saints' primary issue has been putting the ball in the back of the net. Southampton is in the bottom three of the EPL in goals scored (24), xG per 90 minutes (0.94) and big scoring chances per match (1.323).
This is also the same side that has only scored nine goals on just 11.4 expected away from home. Both those numbers are toward the bottom of the league.
It won’t help that the club’s best striker, Che Adams, will miss this match due to injury. Someone will need to step up and I’m not sure who that will be.
Arsenal vs Southampton Pick
While we are comparing the team at the top of the table to the club at the bottom, I don't think the talent gap lines up with the odds. However, I see another way of getting behind the hosts in this match.
My best bet is to take Arsenal on the first-half spread of -1 at +120 odds, which I would play to even money.
If you look at how the Gunners have fared against similar opposition, they have only been losing or drawing at halftime in two of seven matches against bottom-10 teams.
Meanwhile, the Saints have been losing at the break in five of seven against top-half clubs.
I also can't trust Southampton to pose a big offensive threat in this fixture. They have only averaged 0.657 expected goals per road match against top-10 teams.
This bet also avoids a potential collapse — like we have seen recently from Arteta’s side — but I expect the Gunners to be too much for the visitors in this game.
