Arsenal vs Tottenham Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -150 |
| Tottenham Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
One of the best rivalries in world football takes place on Saturday as Tottenham host Arsenal in the North London Derby.
Ange Postecoglu has taken the Premier League by storm, racking up four wins in Tottenham's first five matches and he has not only invigorated the squad, but he has instilled belief into their fan base. With that being said, it's been a favorable schedule up until this point, so we will see how Tottenham do when they play one of the elites of English football.
Arsenal are off to fantastic start as well in the Premier League with four wins in their first five matches. They won both matches against Tottenham last season and with how tight the race is at the top, three points here would be crucial to keep pace with Man City.
Here is my pick for he North London Derby, Arsenal vs Tottenham.
Arsenal
Arsenal may not be putting up eye popping expected goals numbers, but they are exerting one thing better than just about any other Premier League team: game control. Arsenal lead the Premier League in field tilt, allowing the lowest xThreat and controlling 66.2% of the possession.
Everybody questioned Arsenal's defense down the stretch last year and rightly so. After William Saliba got hurt, they allowed 1.45 xG per 90 minutes over their last 11 matches. However, the reason Arsenal were so good in the beginning and middle of last season was because of not only Saliba, but Zinchenko at left back. Zinchenko inverting into the middle of the pitch has changed Arsenal into a 3-2-5 build up structure, which allows them to overload the last line of defense. Additionally, when Arsenal play their first choice back line of Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel and Oleksandr Zinchenko, they are only allowing 0.92 npxG per 90 minutes.
The addition of Declan Rice has taken Arsenal to a new level as well. Rice controls everything in the middle of the pitch and really dictates the tempo in which Arsenal play at. As you can see from the chart below, outside of Burnley and Manchester City, Arsenal are playing the slowest pace of anyone in the Premier League.
image via The Analyst
Declan Rice is also one of the best transition defender and ball stopping midfielders in the world, so it's very difficult to get at this Arsenal back line that has only conceded one big scoring chance this season.
Tottenham
This is the first big test for Tottenham. I know they beat Manchester United 2-0, but they were not the better team for at least the first 45 minutes of that match and Arsenal are a significantly better team than them.
Ange ball has taken the Premier League by storm, but they haven’t played a team that can press or hold possession the way Arsenal can. This happened to Ange last season in the Champions League. His Celtic teams were dominating possession domestically and then had to pay both Real Madrid and RB Leipzig in the Champions League. In four matches against those two sides, Celtic conceded a whopping 9.6 xG. Now, this version of Tottenham is very different than his Celtic team, but it does show some of the limitations of his style of play.
The argument that Tottenham will be able to play through Arsenal’s counterpress the way they have been so far this season is so naive. The pressing teams that Tottenham have played are Manchester United, who is completely disjointed and doesn’t have the personnel to be an elite pressing team, Bournemouth, who is going from a passive low block to a high intensity pressing team, and Burnley, who presses with reckless abandonment.
Arsenal vs Tottenham
Pick & Prediction
Tottenham may be second in PPDA and fifth in high turnovers, but they haven’t played a team that can build up the way Arsenal can, so I question first how effective their press can actually be and second if they actually decide to press high. There is also the concern that when they are out of possession for large stretches of the match, are they going to be able defend one of the better offensive teams in the world?
If I were to play anything here it would be the BTTS – No at +150, because I am not sure Tottenham’s current style of play is conducive to being successful against a possession dominant team that can play through pressure the way Arsenal can.
