Aston Villa vs Newcastle Odds, Pick | Premier League Preview

Aston Villa Over-Performing Against Metrics

Aston Villa have been running way too hot recently, particularly defensively. Over their last seven matches they’ve allowed their opponents to create 8 xG, but their opponents have only put the ball in the back of the net twice.

Villa also run into problems when they have to face good pressing teams because of Unai Emery’s insistence on playing out from the back. Against Chelsea, they got overwhelmed by the counter-press, as Chelsea had a PPDA of 4.6, a 30% counter-press success rate and allowed seven high turnovers. Against Arsenal, the Gunners had a PPDA of 8.4 and forced four high turnovers. Against Manchester City, the Cityzens had a PPDA of 7.2 and forced four high turnovers. The reason that is important is because they are now going to face one of the best pressing team in the Premier League.

The Villans' defense under Unai Emery has not been good especially when they have to play good competition. They had two really good defensive performances in his first two matches in charge against both Manchester United and Brighton, but in seven matches with him in charge against the top half of the Premier League table, Aston Villa have allowed 13.1 xG.

The must-have app for Soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Newcastle Delivering on High Quality

The reason that Newcastle are such a good pressing team is not necessarily because of how they close down opponents, but rather about where they funnel them on the pitch. So many times you when the opposing goalkeeper or center back has the ball Isak or Callum Wilson will make bended runs that are designed to force the goal keeper to play the ball out wide where they can set pressing traps.

Newcastle are top five in the Premier League in both PPDA and high turnovers. With that they're the number one team in the Premier League in final third to penalty box conversion rate, showing just how effective they are at getting the ball into the box in direct counter attacking opportunities.

Although it was under a different manager, the last time they faced Aston Villa they gave them all sorts of problems with their press and in transition, which led to them creating 3.4 xG and winning the match 4-0.

Newcastle have been on fire offensively as of late. Since the 2-0 loss to Manchester City, they’ve ripped off four straight wins and have created 12.5 xG in those matches. Isak is also in incredible form at the moment and is the reason why their attack has improved so drastically, as he’s scored eight goals and created 6.4 xG in just nine full 90s.

The Newcastle defense has taken a bit of a dip in recent matches and isn't the rock solid unit we saw in the middle and beginning of the season. Before the Bournemouth match on February 11th, Newcastle had allowed just 12 goals in 21 matches, but they had conceded 21.2 xG during that time frame, so they were due for some negative regression. Over their last 10 matches, they've conceded 11.2 xG, so Aston Villa are definitely live to score in this match.

Aston Villa vs Newcastle Pick

Emery is running too hot at the moment and regression is coming for Villa, but it's important to note that negative regression is more likely to come on the defensive end of the pitch rather than on the offensive end of the pitch. Ollie Watkins has been in incredible form and for a large stretch of the season had been under-performing his xG numbers, but now he's scored 12 goals off of 12.2 xG, right on where he should be.

Aston Villa are going to have struggles playing out from the back against one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League. If Newcastle go ahead, then Aston Villa can't sit back in their defensive structure and will have to play more direct, which will create an end-to-end style match.

I have 2.75 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+100)