Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +230 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Aston Villa look to keep pace in the race for the top four when they travel to the south coast to take on Bournemouth.
Bournemouth have turned their fortunes around after a dreadful start to the season, winning three of their last four matches to get out of the relegation fight. There were always going to be growing pains with a change in system, but Iraola seems to have his side heading in the right direction. This will be a good test to see how much Bournemouth have progressed.
Aston Villa are on fire right now. They just secured a 2-1 away in at Tottenham and are at the top of their group in the Europa Conference. Unai Emery has done a masterful job turning this club into a legit top four contender, but these are the type of matches sandwiched in between a Europa Conference League match on Thursday and huge home match against Manchester City coming up in the midweek that you cannot afford to drop points if you are going to challenge for the top four.
Here is my Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction.
Bournemouth
Iraola is going to live and die by his hybrid high press. His hybrid press is a mixture of man marking and zonal pressing with the purpose of exploiting the oppositions weaknesses in build up play. His Vallecano team last season was top five in PPDA, high turnovers and opponent build up completion percentage allowed. That has not translated well to the Premier League, because the reality is that teams in England overall are far better in build up play and playing through pressure than teams in La Liga.
The problem is their press has been far from elite so far in the Premier League. Bournemouth are just eighth in PPDA, 17th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed and 10th in high turnovers. Their press not being effective has led to some bad defensive performances, as Bournemouth have allowed the third-most non-penalty expected goals. Additionally, take a look how bad they've been against good build up sides.
Opponent | xG Allowed |
Liverpool | 3.0 |
Tottenham | 2.1 |
Brentford | 2.9 |
Chelsea | 1.8 |
Brighton | 1.9 |
Arsenal | 3.4 |
| Manchester City | 1.9 |
The reason why they've struggled so much against the top sides that build out of the back style teams is because once teams are able to get past the first line of the pressure, they have acres of space going forward with numerical superiority. That's probably why Bournemouth are 19th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. That means 42.5% of the time an opponent enters the final third they are getting into Bournemouth's penalty area.
The offensive numbers are bad for Bournemouth right now, and it's because they are getting no production from anyone outside of Dominic Solanke. Solanke has created 6.0 of their 16.7 xG this season and he is the only regular starter that is getting over two shots per 90 minutes.
Aston Villa
What has made them so good is their tactical versatility. Villa want to control possession, but they’ve also shown a great ability defending without the ball in their 4-4-2 mid block. They conceded a majority of the possession to Tottenham last weekend and did end up allowing 2.3 expected goals, but looked fantastic playing on the break.
They are going to likely control a majority of the possession in this match and are going to build out of the back. So, that means Bournemouth are going to press them high to try to disrupt it. With Bournemouth's pressing numbers not being that impressive, they are in a bad position similar to teams like Burnley and Brighton have found themselves in where if you cannot disrupt Aston Villa's build up play, they will play right through your pressure.
What makes Aston Villa's build up so good is their structure. Many teams nowadays like to invert fullbacks in the center park of the pitch, but instead Emery likes to send Digne high up the pitch, drop Douglas Luiz and John McGinn deep to create a 3-2-5 build up structure, which is what a lot of the top teams are using nowadays.
It's been incredibly successful against lesser competition because since Emery arrived in Birmingham. In 19 matches against the bottom half of the table under Emery, Aston Villa have a +16.2 xGD and have only lost the xG battle four times in those 19 matches.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Prediction
While the spot for Aston Villa isn't great, the tactical matchup is fantastic. Iraola is going to implement his hybrid press against Emery's build up and I am not sure how effective it's actually going to be. Aston Villa are third in non-penalty expected goals because they are a top seven team in build up completion percentage and they have completed the second most crosses into the penalty area with Emery loving to send his fullbacks high up the pitch. Bournemouth are 11th in that category defensively, so don't be surprised if Aston Villa score off a cross.
The flip side is Aston Villa are not a team that is going to counter press. Once they lose the ball they are going to fall back into their 4-4-2 shape, condensing the space in between the lines, and they are going to force Bournemouth to break them down.
These are situations where Aston Villa have thrived under Emery and quite frankly, I don't see many advantages Bournemouth have in this match. I have Aston Villa projected at -120, so I like the value on them at +105.
