Brentford vs. Tottenham Odds
| Brentford Odds | +280 |
| Tottenham Odds | -110 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-132 / +108) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-158 / +112) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up to the minute soccer odds here. | |
The World Cup caused an unprecedented midseason break in the Premier League, but the best domestic soccer league in the world returns on Boxing Day as Tottenham Hotspur travels across London to take on Brentford.
Brentford pulled off a stunning upset as a +1900 moneyline underdog when the Bees beat Manchester City 2-1 on the final weekend of PL action before the World Cup. City were flat that day with the World Cup looming so close and Ivan Toney's brace propelled the Bees to a stunning away victory.
The Bees now return home to the Brentford Community Stadium, where they have been a notorious thorn in the side of top PL clubs since they returned to the top flight last year.
Tottenham had more minutes played at the World Cup than almost every club in the world. Compare this to Brentford, who had no key outfield players playing big minutes in Qatar. As Tottenham return to Premier League action, they’re in a very tricky spot.
Brentford an Efficient and Fit Side
Brentford finished last season as an average team in the Premier League with an above-average defense. The market was skeptical of them producing another season like that and the Bees wouldn't be the first team to regress in year two after over-performing in year one post-promotion.
Their defense has clearly regressed a bit, but the overall performances of Thomas Frank's side remain solid.
Brentford are down to 11th in non-penalty xG allowed per 90. They're allowing more shots — 19th in shots allowed — but the side does a stellar job of making sure those shots are low-quality attempts. No team has a longer average shot distance allowed than Brentford this season.
The midfield isn't doing a ton of ball stopping and teams have been able to effectively tilt the field against them. However, Brentford have not stopped being an excellent crossing defense and an excellent set piece defense. In this matchup with Spurs, that's a major key given how Spurs do most of their attacking from wide areas and set pieces.
Striker Ivan Toney is currently under FA investigation for hundreds of breaches of the FA gambling protocols. There's a real chance he will be suspended and miss major time for the Bees. However, until the investigation is completed, he's able to play and he will on Monday.
Tottenham in Unique Position With PL Return
The World Cup break came at a good time for Spurs, who were clearly sputtering for form a bit. They survived and won their Champions League group, but poor league performances against Manchester United, Newcastle and even Liverpool saw Spurs' elite league position slipping. The underlying numbers aren't close to as good as they were last year in the second half of the season under Antonio Conte.
Spurs aren't creating nearly as many elite quality chances from close positions as they did last year. Tottenham were one of the best in the league at creating big scoring chances last year, but now Spurs are ninth. The ball retention against pressure has been worse.
Tottenham had a lot of key players at the World Cup who will not feature on Monday. Hugo Lloris is expected to be on the bench, as is Cristian Romero. Richarlison is out injured, and Ivan Perisic logged a ton of minutes in Qatar, as did Harry Kane and Heung-min Son. Spurs didn't get much of a break for their top talent.
Brentford vs. Tottenham Pick
Brentford are well positioned to limit Spurs’ dominance on set pieces. The Bees rank seventh in xG per set piece allowed and are a well organized set piece defense normally.
They are a much better team on their home ground than they are away from home. Brentford have been very difficult to beat at home, where they have three wins, three draws and just one home defeat all season. Much like last year, Brentford are more than half of an expected goal per 90 better at home than they are on the road.
Spurs aren’t creating as many clear scoring chances and the attack is generally overvalued because of its reliance on set pieces to produce chances and goals. The attack has otherwise struggled and should struggle at Brentford on Monday.
My projections show value on Brentford +0.5 at about -130 or better. The spot is excellent, and Brentford at home against a big six club is near auto-play territory anyway.
Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-130 or better)
