Brighton vs Bournemouth Odds
| Brighton Odds | -250 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +420 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275 / +220 |
Brighton made their Europa League debut at home on Thursday and lost 3-2 to AEK Athens. The Seagulls have a quick turnaround now for their league match on Sunday at home against Bournemouth, who come into this match with a rest advantage and an improving injury situation at the club.
Andoni Iraola's Bournemouth side is still looking for its first win of the season following a difficult fixture list to begin the campaign, and the Cherries heavy underdogs once again to claim a result from this match.
The Seagulls have scored the most goals in the Premier League thus far, with at least three scored in four of their first five league matches. They've won by simply outscoring their opponents and while this has worked for them thus far this year, Thursday's defeat to Athens showed the perils Brighton will face being so open at the back.
Let's dive into my Brighton vs Bournemouth pick and preview.
Brighton
If you schedule adjust Brighton's numbers, their attack has been 45% better than league average, per an analysis by Michael Caley. The only attack that grades out better is Manchester City. The Seagulls are third in shots per 90, second in big scoring chances created, second in box entries and third in expected threat. They've rotated through different groups of attackers and didn't have Evan Ferguson or Solly March available for the Manchester United fixture last week, but it still didn't stop the Seagulls machine from scoring three goals.
Brighton also added Ansu Fati as an impact attacking midfielder on loan from Barcelona. He nearly scored to make it 4-1 late and his profile at Barcelona suggested he's going to be a serious shots and goals threat for this attack going forward. The questions arise for Brighton in defense, especially given the current fitness situation.
Pascal Gross is in doubt for this match and he's one of the few ball stoppers that exist in this Brighton defensive midfield. His ability to play as a hybrid right back or defensive midfielder gives positional versatility to the Seagulls' possession-based system. They may also be forced to play without Lewis Dunk, who didn't play against Athens after he had a muscular problem post-Manchester United.
The most likely midfield pair for Brighton in this game is Mahmoud Dahoud and Billy Gilmour. As much passing range as Gilmour provides against the Bournemouth press, they are sure to be extremely vulnerable in defensive transition without Gross and potentially Dunk. As a result, it's going to be hard for the Seagulls to keep outscoring everyone by enough to get the requisite margin to cover.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth have taken on the clear pressing philosophy of Iraola already. They are sixth in passes per defensive action, sixth in ball recoveries and sixth in build-up completion percentage allowed. They're good at disrupting teams in build-up in the first phase, but then they are immediately exposed once they're played through. Bournemouth's defense has allowed the fourth-most xGA and third-most shots per match this year. It's a boom or bust defense that was eventually broken down by Liverpool and Spurs, but also remained very competitive for large stretches of those matches.
Only Fulham, Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United have allowed more xGA per match once you adjust for schedule than the Cherries. They're still not going to have Tyler Adams back in the midfield yet, and he'll be a major key from a pressing and ball winning perspective. The question is whether or not they can turn over Brighton enough and exploit them in their transition defense woes.
The attack is getting healthier and trending in the right direction, though. Bournemouth have more attacking depth headed into this match than they did on opening day and they have options off the bench to continue pressing as Brighton's defense starts to wear down later in the match. That's one of the benefits of the summer money spent by the Cherries, and a major reason why I entered the season bullish on them relative to the other lower half teams.
Brighton vs Bournemouth
Pick & Prediction
Brighton have finished well above their xG numbers to begin the new season with 15 goals from about 10.7 xG. As impressive as the finishing and team play has been, Roberto De Zerbi's side is finally getting too much love from the market and enters this match quite vulnerable defensively. They've conceded the second-most big scoring chances and don't offer much resistance from teams getting into their penalty area.
As a result, Brighton will be in tighter matches going forward as long as the Seagulls continue to leak goals. I'd bet Bournemouth +1.5 at -125 or better.
