Brighton vs Burnley Prediction | Premier League Best Bets

Saturday, Dec. 9

10 a.m. ET

USA Network

Brighton Odds	-223
Burnley Odds	+550
Draw	+375
Over / Under	2.5  -175 / +135

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Brighton look to keep the positive momentum moving forward when they host Burnley at the Amex.

They got a huge three points on Wednesday against a pesky Brentford side to take them to within five points of the top four. Roberto De Zerbi's side went through a tough period, but they seem to be on the other side of it and are now in the thick of the battle for European spots.

Burnley were beaten 1-0 by Wolves on Tuesday but actually controlled a majority of the match despite turning the ball over high, which led to only goal. Vincent Kompany's side is in the relegation fight and are desperate for points to get out, but this match against Brighton maybe their worst matchup of the season.

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Brighton

The playbook on Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton is out and good low block teams are starting figure him out. Brighton do not have a plan B, De Zerbi is going to build out of the back and try to the opponent into pressing to exploit the space once teams take the bait. So, what happens when teams don't take the bait? Teams are playing incredibly narrow to not allow Brighton to play through the middle of the pitch. De Zerbi hasn’t been fazed by this, as he has his team now building up in a 4-2-2-2. He's dropping enough guys deep so he always has a 4 v 3 overload in build up. Here is a good snapshot of how they utilized it against Chelsea.

Even though Brighton are dealing with a lot of injuries at the moment, they are one of the deepest teams in the Premier League. Case in point: 18-year old Jack Hinshelwood gets called up to the starting XI to play out of position at right back and ends up scoring the go ahead goal. He also had an incredible debut in the Europa League against AEK Athens.

Since teams are not taking the bait, the pace of the match has gone down significantly. Brighton are patiently waiting until they decide to press. While the offensive numbers have gone down, a net positive is Brighton are now longer getting destroyed in transition like they were in the beginning of the season. Since De Zerbi is trying to overload the center part of the pitch, when Brighton lose the ball they already have the necessary ball stoppers available to prevent teams from transitioning through the middle.

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Burnley

Burnley really weren't that bad against Wolves on Tuesday. Vincent Kompany's side controlled a majority of the match, won the xG battle and out-shot Wolves, but they made one mistake in build up which cost them the match.

That is the worry here for Burnley because this is about as bad of a matchup that they could have asked for. Brighton are the peak of what Burnley are trying to become. First off let's talk about build up. Burnley are going to try and build out of the back, but as you saw against Wolves, they really aren't that great at doing so. The Clarets are 11th in build up completion percentage and seventh in offensive PPDA, which really isn't encouraging if you refuse to try and play direct from goal kicks.

Even if they do get the ball into the final third, they are doing nothing with it. Burnley are 16th in box entries and 19th in shots, which has led to them averaging only 0.87 npxG per 90 minutes, which is the second-lowest mark in the Premier League. If they struggled to play through Wolves pressure, which is very average by PPDA, how are they supposed to play through one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League?

Next, let's talk about Burnley out of possession. Kompany wants his team to play on the front foot and press from a front line of four, but it's not working against good build up teams. Burnley are 14th in PPDA and 16th in high turnovers, which is a major problem because their high press is what largely what made them so good in the Championship last season.

So, Kompany has switched things up and played more passive out of possession against good teams. They've tried this recently against Arsenal and Chelsea, but it has not worked at all. They conceded a combined seven goals and 3.7 expected goals in those two matches, so I don't think they have a good plan to stop Brighton's buildup.

Brighton vs Burnley

Prediction

This is a perfect matchup for Brighton because Burnley do not have a good plan out of possession to stop them. They've largely struggled defensively when playing against the top sides and Brighton's elite build up should be able to allow them to create a boat load of chances.

The improvements De Zerbi's side has made defending in transition have been remarkable, but it also starts with how good they are counter-pressing when the do lose ball or when teams try to play out of the back against them. Burnley are not going to play direct, they are going to try and build up out of the back, which means Brighton are going to force a lot of high turnovers.

These are the spots where Brighton thrives because since De Zerbi has taken over, they have a +19.1 xGD in just 15 matches against the bottom half of the table at home.

I like the value on Brighton's spread -1.5 at +125.

Pick: Brighton -1.5 (+125 via bet365)