Burnley vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Burnley Odds | +200 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188o / +150u |
Nottingham Forest will look to confirm its safety in the Premier League when it takes on Burnley.
Burnley's relegation to the Championship was confirmed with its 2-1 loss to Tottenham last weekend. It's been a difficult season for Vincent Kompany, who never really got his team out of the relegation zone, but one last good performance at home may give the fans some hope in terms of their promotion next season.
Nottingham Forest collapsed in the final 10 minutes against Chelsea last weekend after leading 2-1 to lose 3-2. As it currently stands, Nottingham Forest has a three-point cushion over Luton Town with a 12-goal lead in terms of goal difference, so it would take something completely insane for them not to survive relegation.
Burnley
Burnley has made changes to its defensive structure, but in a match like this where they have nothing to lose because they’ve already been relegated, I think you will see Komany switch them back to a 4-2-3-1 and try to play their build-out-of-the-back, possession-dominant style that we saw in the Championship last season. He switched them to that formation recently against Newcastle and it did not go well. Newcastle scored goals off a high turnover and one from when they were playing a midblock and transitioned from deep, which are both things that Nottingham Forest thrives with.
The defense has been a real problem, but had improved marginally since moving to a 4-4-2. In that formation, they are only allowing 1.76 xG per 90 minutes, but playing out of a 4-2-3-1, they are allowing 1.95 xG per 90 minutes, so neither formation has really been that effective from a defensive standpoint.
Burnley’s offense continues to be near the bottom in terms of creating chances. Since the beginning of February, they have created 19.7 expected goals in 15 matches, which is the lowest mark in the league outside of Brighton. The problem is that they are a team that was constructed to play the way they did in the Championship, but now that they've realized that they cannot effective play that way, they don't have the players to effectively play very direct, which is why they are 19th in xThreat. So, how are they going to score against a Nottingham Forest side that has conceded the third-fewest expected goals over that time frame?
Nottingham Forest
Even though Nottingham Forest is near the relegation zone, they are much closer to being a mid-table side. The reason for that is because of how solid they've been defensively. Under Nuno Espírito Santo, they are only allowing 1.34 npxG per 90 minutes, which is fourth best in the Premier League during that time frame. They typically play passively and do an elite job of keeping teams out of their penalty area, as they have a 25.8% final third to box entry conversion rate, which is second best in the league behind only Aresnal.
Even though Forest does tend to play more passively, they will press high if they believe they can be successful with it. Most recently, they had 21 high recoveries against Wolves, 11 against Everton and last weekend had 15 against Chelsea, so they are capable of pressing Burnley high and causing problems.
Nottingham Forest is also one of the most dangerous transition teams in the Premier League with the combination of pace and ball carrying they have. They are averaging 2.93 counter attacks with a shot per 90 minutes in 2024, which is the highest mark in the Premier League, while Burnley is allowing 2.4, which is third highest.
Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
The only weakness in this Nottingham Forest side is goalkeeping and set pieces. By a pretty wide margin, they have conceded the most expected goals off set pieces, but Burnley is dead last in the Premier League in xG per set piece.
With nothing to play for, I do think Kompany will try to have his team play out of a 4-2-3-1 since they will be controlling a majority of the possession in this match. That sets up a great opportunity for Nottingham Forest to either press their build-up and cause problems or transition from deep against one of the worst transition defenses in the Premier League.
I have Nottingham Forest projected at +121, so I like the value on them at +135.
