Burnley vs Tottenham Odds
| Burnley Odds | +275 |
| Tottenham Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +120 |
Coming off back to back losses, Burnley need to start picking up points, but it's going to be difficult with red-hot Tottenham coming to Turf Moor.
Burnley were dismantled 3-1 by Aston Villa in their second Premier League match and Vincent Kompany is finding that life in the Premier League is not as easy as the Championship. To be fair to Burnley, opening up with Manchester City, Aston Villa and Tottenham is not the easiest of schedules, so to get a true sense of how good Burnley are it's going to take a few more matches.
Ange Postecoglu has Tottenham fans buzzing after back to back 2-0 wins over Manchester United and Bournemouth. They did get knocked out by Fulham in the League Cup on Tuesday, but they rested a lot of their key players. Postecoglu has Spurs playing an exciting brand of football that is going to give Burnley a lot of problems.
Read on for my Burnley vs Tottenham pick.
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Burnley
Burnley's tactical plan against Aston Villa was a bit head scratching. Before we dive into that we have to go back to last season in the Championship. One of the reasons why Burnley were so dominant is because of their high pressing. It was absolutely relentless. They had lowest PPDA and forced 338 high turnovers, but most importantly those high turnovers produced 65 shots and 14 goals in those transition moments when they won the ball.
Kompany has kept that high pressing style through his first two matches and it's flat out not working because he's faced two of the better build up sides in the Premier League. Against Aston Villa, Burnley were pressing with a front four, which is incredibly aggressive because Aston Villa are building out with three from the back. So, the theory is that Burnley will make it incredibly difficult to beat the first line of the press and force those high turnovers.
Burnley's defensive set up against Villa, whilst common, is the opposite of what ideally should happen
They protected the centre when the ball was in Villa's defensive 3rd but left it exposed as Villa advanced up the field
Benson (RW) pressing Torres caused a cascade of events pic.twitter.com/STaZCXDcfh
— Talking Tactics (@TalkinTactics) August 29, 2023
Aston Villa were able to beat the first line of the press and suddenly they would have a transition opportunity with numerical advantages running at the Burnley defense. Just watch how the first goal happened.
And away we go! Aston Villa strike first. 🚨#BURAVL on @peacockpic.twitter.com/mP2eI1pCqf
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) August 27, 2023
There is also the fact that Burnley are a young team with a lot of new faces. They have a brand new center back partnership with Dara O'Shea and Jordan Beyer, a new goalkeeper in James Trafford and a new striker in Zeki Amdouni. It's going to take time for Burnley's system to be effective in the top flight.
Tottenham
Ange-ball has taken North London by storm. Gone are the days of Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte playing low block counterattacking style. Tottenham are now a team that builds out of the back and presses with high intensity, and they're doing a great job with the new system. Through three matches Tottenham have held over 55% possession in all three of their Premier League matches and have created 5.1 xG in the process.
Tottenham are creating fantastic goal scoring opportunities once they break the first line of the press. Postecoglu's 2-3-5 build up shape made him famous at Celtic and it's working here at Tottenham. Additions like Mickey Van de Ven and James Maddison are crucial to this system.
The one thing that Tottenham need to solve is the striker position. Richarlison has been pretty poor to begin the season and Heung-Min Son is not naturally a number nine. Richarlison is questionable for this match, so we probably will see Son up top.
Burnley vs Tottenham
Pick & Prediction
This is a matchup that really suits Tottenham's 2-3-5 build up shape. If they can beat Burnley's front four press, they are going to have numerical advantages all over the pitch going in transition and are going to be able to create chance after chance against what has been one of the weaker defenses in the Premier League so far.
We don't have enough data on the newly promoted teams to get a true sense of where they are at, but they might be way worse than we could have projected and Burnley may be in the relegation fight for most of the season.
This is too good of an opportunity to pass up, so I love Tottenham at -108 to get all three points.
Pick: Tottenham ML (-108 via BetRivers)
