Chelsea vs Brighton Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -138 |
| Brighton Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Chelsea look to rebound from a poor performance at St. James Park when they host Brighton.
The Blues were dismantled 4-1 at Newcastle last Saturday, dropping them even further from the top four. Mauricio Pochettino is at a crossroads right now where the underlying performances have been really good, but Chelsea continue to not get results, which increases pressure week in and week out. They beat Brighton 1-0 in the League Cup earlier this season, so that should give them confidence heading into this fixture.
Brighton have gotten back to their winning ways by beating Nottingham Forest last weekend on the road and AEK Athens to the Europa League to secure a spot in the knockout round. Brighton are falling behind right now in the race for the top six, so a result on the road against Chelsea would be massive for Roberto De Zerbi's side.
Find my Chelsea vs. Brighton prediction and picks below.
Chelsea
Chelsea are without a doubt improving, but the match last weekend against Newcastle was a stark reminder that they have a long ways to go to get back among England's elite.
They have been underperforming their underlying numbers offensively for a long time now, and while they are due to positively regress, they don't have a clear No. 9 that can consistently finish off chances. Right now, Raheem Sterling has been the only consistent attack for the Blues. Nicolas Jackson does have six goals and 7.8 xG, but three goals and 3.4 xG of that came against nine men Tottenham. The build up from Chelsea has been good this season, but they are going to be missing a key player who starts their build up.
It goes without saying, but Reece James being healthy makes such a big difference in this Chelsea team. His ability to calmly play through pressure and progress the ball up the flank and create chances changes the dynamic of the Chelsea attack. However, he picked up a red card in the previous match against Newcastle so that means Malo Gusto will be playing right back. Normally, that type of drop off wouldn't be that significant, but Gusto is going to have to defend Mitoma 1 v 1 in the wide part of the pitch, which is not a good matchup for Chelsea.
Defensively, Chelsea are likely to employ the same game plan out of possession that they did against both Arsenal and Manchester City. They are going to sit in a very narrow 4-4-2 to try to limit central progression because that is where Brighton want to create overloads.
If they fall behind in this match or somehow get away from the game plan, Brighton can hurt you in a quick transition moment. Chelsea are really struggling to defend both in transition and set defense, which was very evident in the Newcastle match. The Blues are 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed, meaning 37.6% of the time teams are getting into Chelsea's final third, they are getting into the penalty box. That's not great news when you are about to face one of the best offensive teams in the Premier League.
Brighton
This is a bad spot for Brighton, who are dealing with a lot of injuries and coming off a trip to Greece in the Europa League.
However, the Seagulls starting XI isn't likely going to be all that different from what we've seen from them. They will have Ferguson, Mitoma, and Adingra available in attack, all of their midfielders are healthy and even though they will be without Lewis Dunk, John Paul van Hecke and Joel Veltman have been a fine centerback pairing.
Here is what Brighton are struggling with. De Zerbi only has one method of play. It's building out of the back, baiting the press and exploiting the space once teams take the bait. The problem is, nobody is taking the bait anymore. Teams are playing incredibly narrow to not allow Brighton to play through the middle of the pitch. De Zerbi hasn’t been fazed by this, as he has his team now building up in a 4-2-2-2. He used to use a 4-2-4, but not he’s bringing the wingers more central and is having the two No. 10s drop deeper to find space in between the lines.
All the attention has been focused Brighton’s struggling offense, but what hasn’t been talked about enough is how much De Zerbi has improved their defense. Yes, they are still yet to keep a clean sheet on the season, but in their last five matches they have only conceded 4.3 non-penalty expected goals.
Chelsea vs Brighton
Prediction
Chelsea really struggled building out of the back against Newcastle, as the Magpies turned them over high nine times and had a PPDA of 7.1. Brighton are an outstanding high pressing team and can cause a lot of problems for Chelsea in their build up.
There are also still a lot of questions with the Chelsea attack that have to give you a lot of pause, especially going up against a drastically improved Brighton defense.
The Seagulls will probably hold a majority of the possession in this match and it's going to be a battle for numerical superiority in this middle of the pitch. The one game changer that Brighton have is Mitoma goign 1 v 1 up against Gusto, which could prove to be the difference in this match.
Even though this is a bad spot for Brighton, the price is too good to pass up on the Seagulls. I only have Chelsea projected at +103, so I love the value on Brighton +0.5 at +110.
