Crystal Palace vs Brighton Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +210 |
| Brighton Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -106 / -118 |
Crystal Palace host Brighton on Thursday in the M23 derby at Selhurst Park.
Even though these two clubs are separated by some distance, before Crawley Town entered the football league in 2011, Crystal Palace were actually the closest club to Brighton. The intensity of the rivalry heated up in the 1970s and to this day there is still a rivalry between these two clubs.
Crystal Palace got a late penalty to secure a massive point against Manchester City last weekend. The Eagles are where they have been seemingly for a decade, in the middle of the table safe from relegation, but no real chance of challenging for a European spot.
Brighton were beaten pretty badly by Arsenal at the Emirates on Saturday, but this will be a much different opponent. Brighton have been up and down all season long and are starting to fall behind in the race for the top four and six. Three points on the road against a rival would be crucial for the Seagulls.
Here is my Crystal Palace vs Brighton prediction.
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Crystal Palace
The potential that Crystal Palace have in their squad right now is crazy good, they just haven't been able to put it fully on display because of injuries. Michael Olise finally got his first start of the season against Manchester City, but Eberechi Eze was injured, so two of their best attacking players have yet to play together this season, which means the Crystal Palace offense will be much better than averaging just 1.11 npxG per 90 minutes.
What makes Crystal Palace good as an underdog is how well they play in their defensive block. They are one of the more passive teams in the Premier League, which is how Roy Hodgson likes it.
The Eagles have as much defensive solidity as you can ask for with their back four of Joel Ward, Marc Guehi, Joachim Andersen and Tyrick Mitchell all playing together for the better part of two years now. Not only are they a top eight team in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals allowed, but they are elite at defending their penalty area. Crystal Palace are third in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed, which is massive for them when they are basically letting teams walk into their final third.
That defensive solidity was on display in their last two matches as they held Liverpool to 1.2 xG and Manchester City to 1.6 xG, which is a very difficult feat to accomplish.
Crystal Palace are capable and is going to do what a lot of low block teams have done to Brighton. They are going to sit in a narrow low defensive block and and not allow Brighton to play through the middle, which should be a good game plan.
Brighton
Brighton got destroyed on the road at Arsenal last Saturday, but this will be a much different opponent and one they have been seeing a lot recently.
De Zerbi's Brighton squaring off with low blocks has become a weekly occurrence at this point because the playbook is out on how to stop Brighton's build up if you are a low block team, which Crystal Palace are. Brighton do not have a plan B, De Zerbi is going to build out of the back and try to the opponent into pressing to exploit the space once teams take the bait.
To be honest, plan A has been working for a long time, so why change? Teams are no longer taking the bait and sitting in an incredibly narrow defensive shape so Brighton can't overload the center of the pitch. To combat this, De Zerbi has his team now building up in a 4-2-2-2. He's even dropping enough guys deep so he always has a 4 vs 3 overload in build up.
The problem is, the offensive numbers have taken a dip against some of the low block teams they have faced. Over the past few months Brighton have faced Fulham, Everton, Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest and Brentford and have only created 5.6 non-penalty goals in those matches.
Outside of last week's match against Arsenal, Brighton's defense has drastically improved. In the eight matches prior to Arsenal, Brighton had allowed only 6.8 non-penalty expected goals and two big scoring chances. The reason for that is two fold. First, Brighton are a really good counter pressing team, ranking in the top four in PPDA and opponent build up completion percentage allowed. Secondly, since they hold a lot of possession and their build up structure has most of their players in the center of the pitch, it makes it very difficult for teams to play through the middle in transition against them.
Crystal Palace vs Brighton
Prediction
This is another worrying match for De Zerbi. Facing low blocks is becoming increasingly too familiar for Brighton. Nobody is taking the bait anymore and he won't play more direct or go to a plan B because Brighton still have not sent the ball long from a goal kick this season.
They'll be able to walk the ball into Crystal Palace's final third, but the question is are they going to be able to consistently break them down and create chances? Their recent showings against similar teams has to give you some pause.
Crystal Palace having both Olise and Eze healthy now makes them a deadly counterattacking team that can rip through anybody. Brighton have had some good defensive showings recently, but they still haven't kept a clean sheet this season.
So, I like the value on Crystal Palace +0.5 at -145 at home where they've played much better this season.
