Crystal Palace vs Man City Odds
Crystal Palace Odds | +850 |
Man City Odds | -290 |
| Draw | +390 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-102 / -102) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+110 / -140) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Manchester City had a comfortable 2-0 win at home against Newcastle last weekend to stay five points behind Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table. The Cityzens have had surprising trouble in recent history against Crystal Palace, but three points are a must for them on the road in south London on Saturday in the main afternoon time slot.
Crystal Palace is 12th in points and five points clear of the relegation places, but the attack has been so poor of late that you could see Patrick Vieira's Eagles getting dragged into the relegation picture if results go sour. The Eagles did grind out results against Liverpool, Newcastle, Brentford, Brighton and Manchester United since the World Cup break.
The Eagles are nearing the end of their brutal stretch of fixtures, can their defense do enough to slow down City's attack?
Crystal Palace
Strength of schedule arguments 25 games into the season don't often carry much weight, but it can matter in extreme examples. Because of how Palace's schedule set up, they've played six teams twice already, and they're many of the better teams in the league. Palace has played Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Brentford, Manchester United and Aston Villa twice. Based on my Premier League power ratings, that's six of the 11 best teams.
Once Palace plays City, Brighton and Arsenal this week, they'll have played nine of the 11 best teams twice and none of the below-average teams twice yet. You look at Palace's -0.49 xGD per 90 and see how they could get dragged into the relegation picture. Only Bournemouth has created fewer xG per 90 this season, and only three teams have worse numbers in aggregate.
On paper, the attack really does look like it would struggle to score goals. The Eagles are 18th in shots, 18th in big scoring chances created and last in crosses completed into the box. A red card helped them against Manchester United, but they've otherwise failed to create more than one expected goal against top defenses this season.
Palace's defense is still a clearly above-average group though. The Eagles are 12th in non-penalty xGA per match and still fifth in ball recoveries — a sign that the out-of-possession energy remains high on a match-to-match basis. If you control for schedule strength, it's a good defense. One that could give City problems in running up the score.
Man City
Manchester City should have no problems at all completely dominating the field tilt and stringing possession together against a Palace side that doesn't really press at the same level that they did last year without Conor Gallagher. The Cityzens showed in the win against Newcastle at home that Pep Guardiola is determined to deny countering opportunities to the opponent, even at the expense of his own attacking firepower.
City is in a bit of a tricky spot with RB Leipzig looming on Tuesday in the Champions League, so I wouldn't necessarily expect to see Erling Haaland pushed for big minutes if they're protecting a 2-0 lead late.
The Cityzens finally got that clean sheet for Ederson to get to 100 last week and I think they will again this week. There was never anything structurally wrong with City when they conceded those goals to Bournemouth and Forest away from home. Both of those sides have shown more countering prowess in the last month than Palace has. Both of those sides are also considerably worse defensively than Vieira's side.
Crystal Palace vs Man City Pick
The market appears to be finally adjusting the City totals downward following last week. The under 3 in the City match against Newcastle opened -120 and closed as high as -160 at some books. Now this total is sitting just north of 2.5. For a match between City and a bottom-eight team, you'd normally expect the total to be a bit higher.
Palace's inability to create much of anything on the counterattack lowers its goal projection for this match. It's one of the lowest team totals I've seen in my numbers all season long. I'm betting under 2.5 at anything plus money and trusting City's defense to keep another clean sheet.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+100 or better) |
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