Everton vs West Ham Odds
| Everton Odds | +105 |
| West Ham Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
Everton look for all three points to get out of the relegation fight when they host West Ham.
Everton got some good news this week as their 10 point deduction for breach of FFP rules has been reduced to six points, which put them five points clear of the relegation zone. The Toffees really should have walked away with three points in their previous match after conceding in stoppage time to 10 man Brighton. They beat West Ham in the previous meeting in London, which should give them the confidence to do the same here.
The Hammers got a much needed win on Monday, beating Brentford 4-1 to keep them inside the top half of the table. This is an interesting spot for West Ham with their Europa League round of 16 match against Freiburg coming up on Thursday, so it will be interesting to see which competition the Hammers prioritize as we enter the stretch run of the season.
Read on for my Everton vs West Ham prediction.
Everton
This match is likely going to be very back and forth with two teams that mainly want to play direct, but Everton are by far the better team at playing that style. The Toffees are still on a pretty bad run. They’re winless in their last nine matches and have a -9 goal differential in those matches, but they only a -2.1 expected goal differential. They were pretty poor in their last match against Brighton, not getting off a shot in the first half, but that was by design, as they want to play a passive low block and concede possession to Brighton, which did end up working.
The biggest thing in this match is Everton are fantastic at getting the ball into wide areas, which is where West Ham struggle defending. The Hammers have allowed the most crosses into their penalty area of anyone in the Premier League and that is Everton’s main method of attack.
When discussing Everton, we have to talk about corners because Sean Dyche views them as art the way Everton are able to create chances off of them. The Toffees lead the Premier League in expected goals created off of corners and are averaging 0.17 xG per corner, while West Ham have been very average at defending corners this season and are in the bottom five in aerial dual win percentage.
Everton are also an elite team out of possession. They can press high incredibly effectively when they feel they need to, as they've forced the fourth-most high turnovers, but are also elite at sitting in a mid-block and denying central progression. They did a fantastic job in the previous meeting against West Ham holding them to just 0.7 xG on 12 shots.
West Ham
West Ham have been a bit fortunate to be in the position that they are in the table. The Hammers have 39 points on the season, but based on Understat's expected points metric, they should only have 30.8 points.
This is also not the best of matchups for them, especially considering what Everton did to them in the previous meeting. Everton conceded 64% of the possession to West Ham and dared the Hammers to break down their defensive block and West Ham couldn't do it for a couple of reasons. First, West Ham are a team that needs to play in transition to be successful. They aren't good enough in build up to play through a good out of possession team like Everton. Secondly, they don't have a true striker at the moment. Jarrod Bowen is having a nice season playing up front, but again most of his goals and chances have come on the break. That means that West Ham don't have the size in the box to win aerial duals or players comfortable finding space in between lines.
There is also the aspect that West Ham haven't been great defensively all season. They are the most passive team in the Premier League and it hasn't been the best approach. The Hammers are allowing 1.62 npxG and are dead last in the Premier League in box entries allowed. Their defense has been incredibly poor away from home this year conceding 1.86 xG per 90 minutes.
Everton vs West Ham
Prediction
This is actually a great matchup for West Ham. Sean Dyche may not look like a tactical genius, but the way he set Everton up in the previous encounter showed that he understands how to put his team in the best position to get results given the opponent.
Everton will have a bit of sigh of relief about the positive news off the pitch, but on the pitch this is a perfect matchup for them facing an opponent that can't defend crosses and is very average at defending corners. Plus, this is Everton at Goodison Park, where they've been outstanding, putting up a +8.0 expected goal differential.
Everton are way overdue for a win and quite frankly are undervalued here at home against West Ham. I have Everton projected at -135, so I like the value on them at +105.
