Leeds United vs Newcastle Odds
Leeds United Odds | +380 |
Newcastle Odds | -141 |
| Draw | +325 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-167 / +135) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-148 / +110) |
| Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
A huge match at Elland Road kicks off the weekend of Premier League action as Leeds United host Newcastle.
Leeds are in big trouble. After a loss to Manchester City on Saturday they are now in the relegation zone and FiveThirtyEight has them at a 72% chance to be relegated back to the Championship. Leeds are so desperate to survive relegation they called up Big Sam Allardyce to come manage the final four matches of the season. They finish the season at West Ham and then host Tottenham, so three points are absolutely crucial on Saturday.
Newcastle are getting close to locking up a a top four spot, but with Liverpool making a late charge every point is vital for the Magpies to get into the Champions League. Newcastle have a 92% chance of clinching a Champions League spot, but this match will be huge.
Leeds United Need Heroic Effort
This is an all-time Big Sam spot to get Leeds all three points and out of the drop zone. However, the matchup here for Leeds is dreadful.
Against Manchester City, Leeds took four shots and created 0.2 xG while also conceding 2.6 xG. That means over their last 10 matches they have conceded 21 xG and are showing no signs of improving on defense. Leeds try to be a low block defensive team with players that aren’t equipped to play that system. Against Manchester City they had a PPDA of 25.2 and an average defensive action height of 34.7, which is hilariously low.
EU SUPER LEAGUE BOT :
Man City 2 : 1 Leeds pic.twitter.com/KHTcSimrNo— DB (@DatoBHJ) May 6, 2023
Leeds have two options here. They can try to play out of the back and run the risk of turning the ball over high against a top five pressing team, which will slow the pace of the match down. Or, they can play extremely direct like the did against Manchester City, playing a low defensive block and daring Newcastle to break them down. The problem is once they get going in transitional opportunities, they now are going to be stuck defending against the best transition offense in the Premier League and Leeds have been one of the worst transition defenses in the Premier League going on two years now.
Newcastle on The Brink of History
Newcastle are the best transitional team in the Premier League and they play a style that is very conducive to turning the match into how they want it played. The Magpies are a top five pressing team in the Premier League and love to set pressing traps high up the pitch to win the ball off their opponent and commit a large number of players going forward in direct counterattacking opportunities.
This style hasn’t been the most effective against teams like Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, but against the bottom half of the table and more importantly against direct counterattacking style teams, it’s been incredibly successful.
Against the bottom half of the table this season, Newcastle have a +24.4 xGD in 17 matches and are averaging 2.28 xG per 90 minutes in those matches as well. Leeds have been terrible versus the top six teams in the Premier League this season.
Since the 2-0 loss to Manchester City, they’ve scored 26 goals and created 25 xG in those matches. Alexander Isak has transformed this Newcastle attack because he is a striker that doesn’t have a weakness and can receive the ball and finish from almost any angle. It has given Newcastle versatility in their attack and also has created space for all of their other attackers. Isak has now scored seven goals in his last 10 matches and will be a pain for Leeds to deal with.
Leeds United vs Newcastle Pick
Even though Leeds need to win this match to get out of the relegation zone, they are not set or equipped to take down Newcastle unless something wild happens.
Leeds are not good enough in build up play to play through Newcastle's press, which means they're going to have to be extremely direct. Just look what happened to teams like Everton and Southampton when they played that style against Newcastle? They got seven goals and 6.7 xG hung on them.
It's the same story time and time again – teams in the bottom half of the table end up playing a transitional match against the best transition team in the Premier League and they get destroyed almost every time.
I have Newcastle projected at -162, so I like the value on them at -141.
