Leicester City vs. Newcastle United Odds
| Leicester City Odds | +225 |
| Newcastle United Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / +100) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-150 / +110) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up to the minute soccer odds here. | |
Leicester City will try to continue their climb up the Premier League table when they host third place Newcastle on Boxing Day.
The Foxes had a terrible start to the season and at one point were sitting at the foot of the table. However, Leicester picked up 12 points in their last five matches before the World Cup break, which moved them up to 13th place in the table. However, this will be a different challenge as they take on a top four side.
Newcastle are having a dream season – currently sitting in third place – and are deserving to be in that position. The Magpies have only lost one match in this Premier League campaign and were red hot going into the World Cup break, winning five straight matches.
Leicester City Due For Offensive Regression
Going into the break, Leicester were running outrageously good offensively. Since September 4th, the Foxes have scored 19 goals off of 12.5 xG.
Leicester’s average shot distance is 18.6 yards, the second longest in the Premier League. They lead the Premier League with nine goals from outside the box off of 2.9 xG, and that is not sustainable. Also, they have created the third-fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League.
The Foxes have been very good at playing through pressure, as they have the third-best offensive PPDA in the Premier League. However, if you take a look at their performances against good pressing teams, it leaves a lot to be desired. Against top five pressing teams Leeds United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal, every single team had PPDA below 11 and forced a combined 24 high turnovers against Leicester.
On the other end of the pitch, Leicester have improved defensively and are starting to see some of the positive regression they were due for. Danny Ward started out the season at -6.3 post-shot xG in only eight matches, but has since lowered his total for the season to -3.3 and has only conceded one goal in his last six matches.
Newcastle United Rightfully Having an Outstanding Year
Newcastle’s defense has been outstanding this season. They are allowing just 0.91 npxG per match and are top five in xThreat allowed, passes allowed into the penalty area and xThreat.
Only six of their 15 opponents have created over 1 xG, and those teams include Liverpool, Manchester City, Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford, Tottenham and Southampton. Newcastle also contain a top-five defense in terms of xG per set piece.
The Magpies are one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League, as they’re third in PPDA and second in high turnovers. Right before the break, they beat Chelsea 1-0 and had a PPDA of 7.7 in the match. They are also very controlled in their pressing, which makes them so difficult to play through.
Such. Sweet. Feet.
Miguel Almiron attacks the net and extends the Newcastle lead!
📺 @USA_Network#TOTNEW | #MyPLMorningpic.twitter.com/pi8yzcLTr3
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) October 23, 2022
Offensively, Newcastle have been really good as well, as they're averaging 1.54 npxG per 90 minutes and have the second-most big scoring chances in the Premier League. The bad news is their star striker Alexander Isak is going to miss this match due to injury, which is a big blow. That means Chris Wood will be the main striker and he's only been a 0.20 xG per 90 minute striker since joining Newcastle.
Leicester City vs. Newcastle United Pick
This is a bad matchup for Leicester City for a bunch of reasons. First off, the one weakness in Newcastle is their sub-par ability in build-up play. The Magpies are 11th in Offensive PPDA, but Leicester are very unorganized with their pressing and are actually a team that prefers to have the ball.
Newcastle play better when they are able to be out of possession and counter with the pace and ability they have going forward.
With how good Newcastle's defense has been, I have a hard time seeing how Leicester City are going to find the back of the net.
I have the both teams to score – no line projected at +104, so I like the value on +130 or better.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (+130)
