Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -400 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275 / +210 |
Goal scoring and output is up solidly in the Premier League this season league-wide, but not for Nottingham Forest and Steve Cooper. The Trees were quite open at the back last season and as a result, had one of the worst expected goals allowed numbers and routinely lost in blowout scores to top sides in the league.
As Forest travels north to Anfield to face Liverpool on Sunday, their improved defensive metrics will be put to the test. Liverpool's attack is as dynamic as any in Europe and the Reds have essentially scored multiple goals in 11 straight games (Spurs VAR error being the exception).
The market has taken a lot of Liverpool money since the open here — perhaps a reaction to the improved defensive showing Liverpool showed in taking down an underrated Everton in the Merseyside Derby last weekend. The addition of new signing Ryan Gravenberch to the first choice midfield has helped stabilize the transition defense a bit.
Liverpool are home for the third consecutive match after the Reds dispatched Toulouse at home in the Europa League on Thursday. After the steam toward Liverpool, are the Reds now overvalued?
Find my betting prediction, pick and preview for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest below.
Liverpool
The biggest problem with using all of Liverpool's stats this year is the unreasonably high number of minutes they've played in extreme game states. A quick glance at their overall metrics would leave you quite alarmed about their defensive output, for example. The Reds are 12th in crosses conceded into the penalty area, 14th in shots allowed and ninth in NPxGA per match.
Liverpool have played 156 minutes this season down at least one man this season, and no other club has played more than 54 (Everton, against Liverpool). Here's Liverpool's xG differential, broken down by game state in 2022-23.
11-on-11: +1.41 per 90
Man advantage: +2.2 per 90
Man disadvantage: -1.63 per 90
The red cards have really damaged Liverpool's xGA numbers to skew them worse than they actually are. Despite this though, the Reds have had some issues defensively. The question is whether or not Gravenberch will help alleviate these concerns by adding more youth, ball wining and athleticism to the midfield trio alongside Alexis Mac Allister and Dominick Szoboszlai.
When the Reds have been in a normal game state this year (tied or +/- 1 goal) and 11-on-11, the defense is sixth in xGA per 90.
Nottingham Forest
Cooper and Forest have been considerably more defensive, passive out of possession and have actually been the lowest-event team in the league. You’ve seen Burnley, Bournemouth, Luton Town and Wolves even play more aggressively at the bottom of the table, but Cooper’s side has conceded the third-fewest big scoring chances and ranks 10th in xGA and 12th in box entries conceded.
No defense has been more efficient at preventing teams from gaining entry into the box once they’ve progressed into the final third. This will be a real challenge to keep Liverpool out at Anfield given the Reds’ midfield dynamism and attacking talent. But the Trees won’t be without their chances on the counterattack.
Forest will still likely be without Taiwo Awoniyi, a major part of their attack. A fully fit Morgan Gibbs-White is the player to watch for Forest in transition moments. Liverpool still have plenty of defensive flaws — they've conceded early in almost every match — which makes covering big spreads against solid defenses a real challenge.
Gibbs-White now has maintained a 0.25 xA per 90 rate across multiple PL seasons, even though this year's sample is rather small still.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
Given the overall squad investment that Forest has made in the last 18 months, it shouldn't come as a huge surprise that eventually the underlying performance would improve solidly. Consider Forest's matchups with top sides this year. They lost 2-1 at Arsenal conceding less than 1 xG.
They had the benefit of a red card against Manchester City to keep that match competitive, but even in total only conceded seven total shot attempts. The Trees haven't been blown out a single time all year, which is a sign of how much the new tactics and signings have raised the floor.
The Reds have outscored most of their opponents this year and they'll probably outscore Forest. But expecting margin is a bigger challenge. I’d bet Forest +1.5 at anything plus money and I'd split the wager with a first half +0.5 given Liverpool's early struggles in this season.
