Luton Town vs Everton Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +155 |
| Everton Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +110 |
Luton Town look to get out of the relegation zone when they take on Everton at Kenilworth Road.
Luton Town lost once again over the weekend to Wolves, which kept in them one point behind Nottingham Forest. The Hatters have been on a bad run, losing five of their last six matches. They desperately need all three points here to help them stave off relegation with Nottingham Forest taking on Sheffield United this weekend.
After winning their third straight match, Everton have secured a spot in the Premier League next season. The Toffees have been through more adversity off the pitch than any other club this season, so a breath of fresh air knowing they have survived relegation may allow them to play much better with the freedom they've been so desperately craving all season.
Read on for my Luton Town vs Everton prediction.
Luton Town
Luton Town beat Everton in the previous two meetings because they let Everton have the ball, played very passively and then hit them in transition. Given the situation they are in, I am not really sure they are in a position to play that way because they have to go for it. That means Everton can be very comfortable sitting in their mid-block and breaking from there. They also aren’t going to try to build out of the back and allow Luton to press them high.
The Hatters are getting healthier across their back line, but this is the type of matchup that doesn’t really suit them because Everton are a much better version of what Luton Town want to be. Luton are going to have to play aggressive out of possession and win a lot of long balls and duals in the middle of the pitch against a team that is elite at doing both of those things. Luton Town defensively have also been pretty poor at defending in wide areas in terms of allowing crosses into their penalty area (15th in EPL) and defending set pieces (12th in EPL), so this really isn’t a great matchup for them.
Even the offensive matchup isn't really that good because if Everton decide to sit off in their mid-block, Luton are not a team that builds out of the back with regularity and will be relying on winning dual in the middle of the pitch off of long balls against one of the best teams in the Premier League at doing just that.
Everton won nearly twice as many duels as Liverpool. DYCHED pic.twitter.com/mCY4icabJK
— markstats (@markrstats) April 24, 2024
Everton
Everton are an absolute pain to play against, no matter who you are, and they are starting to get a lot of the positive regression back that they've been due for.
Sean Dyche typically has his team set up to play a mid to high defensive block where they do an elite job at cutting off passing lanes through the middle of the pitch, but out of that defensive shape they can also press opponents high up the pitch when certain triggers happen. The Toffees tend to play a little more passively as a whole, so their PPDA ranks near the bottom of the Premier League, but they have forced the third-most high turnovers, so when they do press they are incredibly effective.
They also do an incredible job at limiting opponents from creating high scoring chances. Everton have allowed the second-fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League behind only Arsenal and are fourth in non-penalty expected goals allowed. They are going to face a lot of crosses in this match, which is not a problem for Everton because they are top five in winning aerial duals.
Everton have drastically underperformed offensively this season scoring 37 goals off of 45.5 expected goals, but over their last three matches they've been on a good finishing run, scoring five goals off of 2.3 expected goals.
Luton Town vs Everton
Prediction
There is a lot of must win baked into this line with Luton Town needing to win to avoid relegation and Everton already having achieved safety.
These two have met twice this season, once in the Premier League and once in the FA Cup. Over those two matches Everton created 3.9 expected goals and scored only twice, while Luton Town created 2.3 expected goals, but scored four times.
There is almost a full goal difference in underlying metrics for the season between these two sides with Luton Town having a -0.94 xGD per 90 minutes and Everton sitting at only -0.04. Even if we go from the beginning of February, Luton Town have the worst xGD in the Premier League at -1.26 per 90 minutes while Everton are around even.
I have Everton projected as a -138 favorite if there was no motivation factor, so I think the current line is a bit crazy and I like the Toffees draw no bet at -102.
Pick: Everton – Draw No Bet (-102 via bet365)
