Luton Town vs Tottenham Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +600 |
| Tottenham Odds | -250 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211/+160 |
Tottenham found itself at the center of European soccer discourse this week following Spurs' 2-1 last-second victory at home against Liverpool. Not only did Spurs benefit from a remarkable refereeing error to incorrectly disallow a Liverpool goal, but Tottenham also had the fortune to play up a man for most of the match and up two men for the final half hour. Spurs scored the last-second goal to remain unbeaten and vault above the Reds into second in the Premier League table.
We've reached the early season peak market rating of Ange ball under new manager Ange Postecoglou, and now Spurs face a myriad of injury questions and a potential flat spot as they travel for an early kickoff against the league's worst team, Luton Town. Luton has been surprisingly effective at forcing high turnovers and turning them into solid, quick-strike opportunities. That could be the key to scoring and being competitive with Tottenham, despite a clear talent deficit.
Luton Town
Luton Town's underlying statistical profile isn't the worst in the entire league. In fact, both Burnley and Sheffield United have worse underlying numbers. The Hatters are 14th defensively in NPxG allowed and 16th in attacking xG produced. The defense has shown a real energy and spirit off the ball as they rank third best in ball recoveries. They've also been solid enough at keeping opponents out of their penalty area and sitting deep when required.
Luton has done a decent job defensively of pressing at times and forcing high turnovers when the opportunities present themselves. They've forced the fifth-most high turnovers, but quickly drop off out of possession and let opponents keep the ball in their final third. As a result, they rank 19th in PPDA. It's a hard balance to pull off, but it's one that I think could be effective against Spurs. Either win the ball really high, or dare Spurs to break down a more passive defensive side with little room to operate in behind.
Luton may only have one win, but they've outplayed West Ham, Burnley and Wolves in their respective matches and only earned one point to show for it. Better results could be coming if they continue these underlying performances.
Tottenham
Spurs have yet to lose a league match under Postecoglou, but the underlying numbers aren't nearly as rosy as the points and goals would suggest. Spurs are pressing much more aggressively than they did last season and that's evident in the pass completion rates. Tottenham went from a bottom-five ranking in pass completion rate allowed last season to the second-lowest percentage allowed.
There's been a real youth movement at left back with Destiny Udogie, in midfield with Pape Sarr and Yves Bissouma, and Richarlison puts in really solid defensive work as a forward. Even with this, Spurs are taking a lot of risk with the ball in their own half and have given the ball away high often against teams capable of forcing high turnovers. As a result, Spurs have played a league average strength of schedule and rank eighth in xGA and 10th in shots allowed.
The injury to Manor Solomon means Richarlison is likely to start on the left wing yet again. His combination play with James Maddison to get in behind was one of the bright spots of the Spurs' attack in the match against Liverpool. Building up in the 2-3-5 gives Maddison and Richarlison a lot of freedom in possession, and they could be key given that Heung-min Son is at less than 100% health.
Simply put, you can upgrade Spurs for their early season results under Postecoglou, but they shouldn't be this big of a road favorite.
Luton Town vs Tottenham
Pick & Prediction
This is classic sell-high spot after the most dramatic win of Spurs season. Tottenham could be caught looking ahead to the upcoming break and Luton Town has played better than its numbers. New Spurs goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario has been stellar and has bailed his team out at times this year, but Luton should force enough high turnovers to threaten and keep this match competitive.
As a result, I'm betting Luton to score early and cover an inflated spread at home.
