Luton Town vs Wolves Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +230 |
| Wolves Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Luton Town look for their first ever point in the Premier League when they host Wolves at Kenilworth Road.
The Hatters lost their fourth straight match to begin their season 1-0 at Craven Cottage to Fulham. Rob Edwards has a massive job on his hands, as it's pretty clear right now that the Hatters are destined for relegation unless they start to turn things around in a hurry. This match on Saturday is about as good of an opportunity as it gets to get all three points.
Gary O'Neill's Wolves have lost four of their opening five matches and find themselves once again in the relegation fight. It's been a tumultuous summer for Wolves from the amount of key players that have been sold to Julen Lopetegui, leaving the club the week of the season starting. Wolves have showed some life and have put in decent performances as underdogs, but this is a different role for them now being road favorites for the first time in a while.
Here is my Luton Town vs Wolves pick.
Luton Town
Luton Town are the worst team in the Premier League. I think that is pretty clear through match week five. They do not have the talent to compete with the rest of the league, but they are showing improvements. We've now seen them play two matches against teams that I would consider lower half of the table sides in West Ham and Fulham.
The Hatters held their own in both of those matches and especially against Fulham they really took it to them and defended well in their low block.
Fulham 1 : 0 Luton
▪ xG: 1.68 – 1.48
▪ xThreat: 2.12 – 1.25
▪ Possession: 76.9% – 23.1%
▪ Field Tilt: 80.2% – 19.8%
▪ Def Action Height: 48.6 – 34.1#msbot_eng#eplpic.twitter.com/bjFNyiz9HI— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) September 16, 2023
As you can see from the pass map above, it's pretty clear what Luton Town's plan is. Make sure to maintain numerical advantages in the middle of the pitch, force the ball out wide and dare teams to beat you with crosses. In the Championship they were a high pressing team, but Rob Edwards has quickly realized that is not going to work in the Premier League, so he's opted for a passive 5-3-2 low block.
When Luton Town are going forward they want to get the ball into wide areas and try to beat teams via crosses. That is why Ryan Giles was such an important signing for them, as he is someone from the fullback position that can get forward and deliver those crosses into the box. Believe it or not, Luton Town have completed the most crosses into the penalty area per 90 minutes and they did create their first big scoring chance of the season.
Wolves
Wolves have been better than a lot of people expected before the season and that is a credit to Gary O'Neill, who has instilled a lot of belief into this squad. Through five matches Wolves have created 7.1 xG and have finally stopped trying to do a possession-based build out of the back.
They still do favor playing out of the back, but it's much more of a direct vertical passing style to beat the first line of the press, which has allowed them to play to their strength, which is playing in transition. This has allowed Pedro Neto to flourish on the left wing, as he has the third-most progressive carries and second-most carries into the final third.
The reason why Wolves have looked much better and been very dangerous in these transitional opportunities is because they've been afforded space by the opponents they've played. Manchester United, Brighton, Liverpool and Everton are all teams that want to press high up the pitch to try and force turnovers. That allows Wolves players a lot of space once they beat the first line of the press, which they haven't been that great at this season, but once they do they have space to get forward with the pace they have in their squad.
They are not going to be afforded that type of space here against Luton Town, who are going to play five at the back in a low block, so I question if Wolves have the ability to be effective when they aren't playing in transition.
Luton Town vs Wolves
Pick & Prediction
You can think Luton Town are the worst team in the Premier League, but the market is so unbelievably low on this team that it's created a valuable opportunity to back them.
There is no reason why a Wolves side that has lost four of their first five matches and conceded 10.3 xG should be a road favorite against anybody in this league, including Luton Town.
The Hatters have put in back to back good performances against bottom half of the table sides and I think they will play another one them even at home on Saturday.
I this match projected around a pick'em, so I like the value on Luton Town on the spread.
