Man City vs Arsenal Odds
Man City Odds | -174 |
Arsenal Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-165 / +120) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-150 / +105) |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
The most anticipated fixture of the Premier League season has arrived, as we make our Man City vs. Arsenal picks for Wednesday's massive clash.
Arsenal appeared to be in the driver's seat for the title throughout the months after the World Cup, but a recent stumble, to go along with timely form from the Cityzens, has resulted in City becoming a heavy favorite to win the league. Ahead of this match, Pep Guardiola's squad is a whopping -430 to win another league title.
After draws with Liverpool, West Ham and Southampton, this game represents a lifeline for an Arsenal team that may have a severe sense of disappointment with how they've let their title hopes slip away.
Ahead of the massive fixture, Action Network soccer experts BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo have previewed the fixture and provided their best bets.
Check out our preview and Man City vs. Arsenal picks below.
Man City Face Tactical Questions
Dabbundo: The biggest question surrounding this match is whether Manchester City will press high and try to win back possession from Arsenal, or whether Guardiola is content playing a more out of possession style like he did in the first league meeting at Arsenal, and most recently, in the Champions League against Bayern Munich. City held Arsenal without a shot from open play in the final 50 minutes of the league meeting and held the Gunners' rotated side under 1 xG in their FA Cup bout.
Manchester City’s defense has been unlucky from a variance perspective. The Cityzens have had a below-average shot stopping season from Ederson and rank in the bottom three in goals per shot on target, despite allowing a largely below average shot quality. The defense held Bayern and Arsenal relatively well when playing this style and the onus is on Arsenal to win given the league positions and games in hand remaining.
Because of the elite ball progression of Jack Grealish and Kevin De Bruyne — and elite finishing and shot production from Erling Haaland — City have benefitted from committing fewer numbers forward and still successfully creating a ton of chances.
Guardiola opted to double up on both of Arsenal’s wide players in the first meeting to ensure that Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli wouldn’t be the ones that beat them. Now with better and more passive defensive fullbacks, I’d expect Guardiola to let Arsenal have some of the ball while not conceding too much territory in wide areas.
Arsenal Need to Overcome Key Trend
Cunningham: Arsenal have lost 11 straight matches to Manchester City, but in both meetings this season, it didn’t feel like City were the vastly superior side.
In their meeting in the FA Cup, Arsenal played a lot of second choice players while Manchester City went with a strong starting group. Nonetheless, the Cityzens were only able to create 0.65 xG and amass two penalty box shots against Arsenal’s defense.
Later in the Premier League, City's win was gifted by silly Arsenal errors. A Takehiro Tomiyasu back pass led to a De Bruyne goal and completely changed the match. Two minutes prior, Eddie Nketiah missed a wide open header. In the end, xG was pretty much even.
As for this match, we could go into all of the data, but these are the two best teams in the Premier League and it’s going to come down to Arsenal’s ability to either play out the back without William Saliba, or their ability to be good in direct transitional opportunities.
Oleksandr Zinchenko’s return to the lineup against Southampton was huge for Arsenal because of his ability to invert into the midfield alongside Thomas Partey. Granit Xhaka missed the match against Southampton due to illness and is questionable for this match. Losing him would be a downgrade in the midfield.
If Saliba doesn’t play, Arsenal have a few options, but they really need to keep Rob Holding on the bench. Partey dropped into a center back role on quite a few occasions in build up play against Southampton. They could also slot Ben White back into his original center back position, which would give Arsenal two excellent ball carriers to play out of the back.
Man City vs Arsenal Pick
Dabbundo: Arsenal’s defense is clearly worse than it was in the first half of the season. The Gunners have been conceding a lot more chances in their past 13 league matches as the defense has regressed. But, the total is now inflated because of that.
Remember that the first meeting in North London was lined at 2.5 when Arsenal were near their peak defensively. Two defensive mistakes — one at each end — led to the first two goals in that match.
City’s more passive approach out of possession will limit their attacking threat to Arsenal for two reasons. One is Arsenal’s makeshift back line won’t get exposed in possession as much with Tomiyasu and Saliba out if City don't press from the front as much. The second reason was on full display in Arsenal’s recent trip to Liverpool. The Gunners couldn’t keep control of the ball and got exposed a bit defensively with the waves of Liverpool pressure in the second half.
The longer this game stays in a neutral or close game state, the more I think it plays out as a stalemate. I’d bet under 3 at -120 or better.
Dabbundo's Pick: Under 3 (-120 or better)
Cunningham: For Arsenal to be successful in this match they have to play more transitional, conceding possession to City. In the second meeting of last season, Arsenal did that and had a ton of success. They also need to protect their back line better to City’s overloads or else it’s going to be a long night for Aaron Ramsdale.
If they focus on their pressing out of possession — which has been elite this season — along with Martinelli, Saka, Odegaard and Jesus executing in transition opportunities, Arsenal can win.
Manchester City’s xGD in the Premier League is +1.30 per 90 minutes, while Arsenal’s is +0.90. Home-field advantage in the Premier League is worth around 0.30 xG. So, I have the Manchester City spread projected at -0.72 and I believe they are overvalued.
