Man City vs Man United Odds
| Man City Odds | -400 |
| Man United Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250o /+187u |
It's another edition of the Manchester Derby as Manchester City hosts Manchester United at the Etihad.
Manchester City is the middle of a heated Premier League title race after Liverpool got a last gasp winner against Nottingham Forest. Man City is starting to make its run — winning 12 of its last 13 matches in all competitions — but it needs to gets all three points here to keep pace with Liverpool and Arsenal.
Manchester United's winning run in the Premier League came to an end last Saturday when it was beaten in stoppage time by Fulham at Old Trafford. They rebounded with a win at Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup on Wednesday, but it's going to be a monumental task to get a result at the Etihad.
Let's dive into this matchup in our Man City vs. Man United prediction and pick.
Man City
Pep Guardiola has done some tweaks to Man City's starting XI with the aim at dominating the middle of the pitch. Against Bournemouth, it started Mateo Kovačić and Matheus Nunes as the two advanced midfielders in a 4-1-4-1 and kind of struggled to create chances.
Kevin De Bruyne then started against Luton Town in the FA Cup on Wednesday, and Man City destroyed them for six goals. I don’t see a scenario where Man United, given all its injuries, can actually sit in a defensive block and keep Man City out for a full 90 minutes.
Even if Man United decides to sit in a passive low block, having De Bruyne in the lineup makes such a difference. Not only is he the best passer in the Premier League, but he's so incredibly smart tactically that he can pull defenders with him out wide to create space for Man City's other attackers to operate. It's one of the reasons why Phil Foden has taken his game to another level since De Bruyne returned.
There is also the Erling Haaland factor. Obviously he's the best striker on the planet, and while he'd been going through a bit of a slump in terms of finishing, the underlying numbers were always there. Haaland broke out of that slump in a major way against Luton Town, scoring five goals in less than an hour.
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Man United
The injury list for Man United is growing. They are still without Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martínez and Rasmus Højlund.
For Man United to be successful in this match, it is going to have to play an out-of-possession structure that it is not used to playing, which is a passive defensive block. Erik ten Hag wants his team to press high with the sole goal of forcing a high turnover. The problem is once they gamble and it doesn’t pay off, teams have acres of space to run at their back line.
Last season, Casemiro was playing at an unreal level in terms of his ball stopping. He now looks completely washed, so the Red Devils have conceded the fact that they are going to play up-and-down basketball type of matches. The problem is, Man City is not going to get in an up-and-down match with them. They are going to force Man United into its own final third and will have to defend for their lives for all 90 minutes, similar to its 0-0 draw with Liverpool when United kept a clean sheet but gave up over 30 shots and 2.3 expected goals.
This is going to get bad for Man United if it falls behind early. When playing from behind this season, Manchester United is conceding 2.2 xG per 90 minutes, so once that first goal goes in and they have to play aggressively, this match is going to get ugly.
Man City vs Man United
Prediction
Man City completely dominated Man United in the previous meeting at Old Trafford. They won 3-0, created four expected goals and outshot Manchester United 20-7. Given the injury situation for Man United, I don't see how it is going to drastically improve from that result.
Man United has also had a dreaded run against the Big Six away from Old Trafford. Since the start of last year, Man United has played nine matches against the Big Six. In those nine matches, it has a -9.5 expected goal differential and has accumulated just three points.
Man United's only hope in this match out of possession is to sit in a passive defensive block and pray that Man City doesn't score any of the 20-plus shots it is going to take. That's especially not a good recipe given the form Haaland is in at the moment.
I really don't see a way Man United is competitive here, so I like the value on Man City -1.5 at -138.
Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (-138 via Bet365)
