Man City vs West Ham Odds
Man City Odds | -550 |
West Ham Odds | +1300 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-250 / +198) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-110 / -110) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Manchester City's win at Fulham on Sunday was hardly a dominant performance, but it was three more points for the Cityzens in their chase for the Premier League title. Pep Guardiola's side returns home to Manchester on Wednesday to host West Ham in a rematch of their opening fixture of the season, a 2-0 win for City in east London in August.
City has won eight straight league matches, and while West Ham is also in improved form, the Cityzens are massive two-goal favorites and -550 on the moneyline to win and move one step closer to a third consecutive league title and fifth in six seasons.
West Ham enters this match four points clear of the relegation zone with an extra game on its closest rivals. The Hammers aren't totally safe from relegation, but they're heavy favorites to remain in the Premier League and will surely have one eye on their looming Europa Conference League semifinal next Thursday against AZ Alkmaar.
Man City
Manchester City's power rating is now the far and away No. 1 in the world by my numbers. Their current dominant form is a major driver of that rating, which now includes blowout victories at home against Liverpool, Newcastle and Arsenal — the next three best teams in my EPL power ratings.
It also includes a comfortable two-leg victory over Bayern Munich and a dominant second leg at home against Leipzig — the second-best team in the Bundesliga.
Guardiola used some of the classic Spurs tactics to dismantle Arsenal's possession structure last Thursday at the Etihad. Erling Haaland dropping short to show for the ball to spring Kevin De Bruyne in behind the defense for a clear scoring opportunity led to the first goal and nearly a second before halftime.
City's ball progression machine is in full force right now with both Jack Grealish and De Bruyne in good form and fully fit. The two of them, plus Haaland, allow City to attack successfully and overwhelm opponents without fully committing numbers forward and exposing themselves at the back.
City's full backs, for example, are now more reserved than in recent years when Joao Cancelo was a primary ball progressor and secondary chance creator for this City side. When you combine that with Haaland's athleticism and elite finishing over xG, the result is arguably the best City team that Guardiola has ever had. Last year's side had a better xG difference per 90, but it didn't have a finisher like Haaland.
All of that can be true, and City can still be inflated in the market with this two-goal price. West Ham is an average team in the Premier League with a well above-average defense. The Hammers may have conceded four to Crystal Palace last weekend, but the improved form of Michail Antonio and direct transition ability makes them a danger to City in transition on Wednesday.
West Ham
The Hammers have finally found attacking consistency, and it's led to an upturn in form in the last few months.
The early-to-middle part of the season was defined by West Ham's passive and solid defense, but it was accompanied by an attack producing around one expected goal per 90. Prior to the World Cup, David Moyes' side produced 1.19 xG per match, including penalties. They finished those chances really poorly, and thus, the Hammers managed to score just 0.73 goals per match.
Since the return from the break — essentially the halfway point – West Ham has improved to 1.4 xG per match. That may not seem like a huge jump, but it's the difference between ninth and 15th in xGF per match. The improved production has been followed by improved finishing going forward, as West Ham has run roughly even with its xG for in the last two months.
The defensive solidity has been sacrificed a bit as a result, but it was always going to be hard for a team like West Ham to sustain a defensive output that allowed just 1.15 xGA per match. The Hammers are extremely direct without the ball and can bypass Manchester City's press to play over the top out wide and directly to Antonio in the center.
The primary driver of the improved attack is that Jarrod Bowen made his arrival to the season after a very poor fall. Bowen's numbers were down across the board, but his improved form now has him around 0.5 xG + xA per 90. He's still behind 2021-22 numbers because of the slow start, but he's producing enough in transition and ball progression to produce a league-average attack.
Man City vs West Ham Pick
As much as Manchester City has dominated in the last two months, we've seen some defensive lapses at times. They haven't gotten a great shot-stopping season from Ederson, and as a result, they've struggled to keep clean sheets.
The market is pretty sour on West Ham in this spot with seemingly little to play for and the fact that they're relatively safe from relegation for now. The Hammers' improved form from Bowen and Antonio has them playing more like a top-half attack — not the one from the first half of the season that finished in the bottom five in xG for.
West Ham probably loses this match, but I'd bet both teams to score yes at -120 or better.
