Man United vs Bournemouth Odds
| Manchester United Odds | -143 |
| AFC Bournemouth Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Erik ten Hag was on the verge of losing his job as manager at Manchester United until a recent run of good form in the league earned him Premier League manager of the month in November. The Red Devils have vaulted themselves into sixth in the table despite a league average expected and goal differential. The market took special notice to their best performance of the entire season, a dominant 2-1 win at home against Chelsea on Wednesday.
It moved United from a consensus -155 three-way moneyline price in his match all the way up north of -180 and near -185. Much like how the market overreacted in downgrading them off Saturday’s uncompetitive 1-0 loss at Newcastle, it has overreacted in upgrading them for Wednesday’s win. The Red Devils doubled up Chelsea on shots 27-13, won xG 4.1-1.5, but the same defensive flaws still exist for them.
Those flaws make them vulnerable against the league's most improved team in the last month on Saturday.
Here is my Man United vs Bournemouth prediction.
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Man United
Scott McTominay is in the midst of an elite goal scoring run and he’s the club’s leading goal scorer this season, against all odds. The club tried to sell him in the summer, but he’s been critical getting forward and getting shots from midfield. This has always been his best skill and it's helped supplement the underperformance of Man United's winger play. When the Red Devils were at their best last season, it was often Casemiro getting into the penalty area and scoring goals as a part of the ten Hag possession system that gave extra fuel to the attack. This year, it's McTominay.
He's produced five league goals and one Champions League goal from 3.3 total expected goals. Two shots per 90 from a midfield role is impressive, but he's also almost never on the ball for a midfielder. This is the best way to use McTominay, but United's build-up play will suffer as a result. Given how much Bournemouth likes to press the midfield, the Red Devils will either be a man short in build-up because McTominay is hiding in possession, or they'll need to rely on McTominay to help pass and move the ball.
He ranks in the 50th percentile for pass completion rate and fifth percentile for passes completed per match. The double pivot with Sofyan Amrabat is really light on ball winning and ball progression. Against Chelsea, Bruno Fernandes had an incredible game and made up for it himself. He's a high risk and high reward player whose ceiling is as high as any player in the world.
He created a ton himself in that win, but expecting him to be that good in ball progression and chance creation seems unsustainable.
Just as much as United are capable of reaching the highs of Wednesday at home, they've still only managed one win all season in the league by multiple goals.
Bournemouth
Credit to the Cherries for not overreacting to a poor start to the season that saw them in the relegation zone. No team is more improved in the last six weeks from a results and underlying performance perspective than the Cherries as they continue to learn and adapt to the new system.
Bournemouth’s press has made consistent improvements under manager Andoni Iraola. The defense still has real flaws, but the attack has trended straight upward. They're 10th in forcing high turnovers and finally getting the attacking payoff for those high ball recoveries. The Cherries rank 10th in box entries, 12th in final third entries and sixth in xG per set piece.
The overall reality of the Bournemouth team is that the defense is too open and the talent level is a bit too low to keep out quality attacking sides in this league. But if you take a league average attack and a below average defense, you settle in to a mid-table Premier League side that isn't really in danger of relegation. The market had them priced down as the third or fourth-worst team preseason, and it hasn't been the case for a month now.
Luton Town only were +1.5 against United three weeks ago. The gap between Bournemouth and Luton is more than a half goal on a neutral at this point.
Man United vs Bournemouth
Prediction
This could be viewed as buying high on Bournemouth given their recent results and performances uptick, but there's still market skepticism on this team. They've been steamed against in this spot and while I wouldn't have bet on them if they were play +0.75, they're now catching the full goal on the road.
That's enough for me to get involved on the Cherries as an underdog. I'd bet +1 at -115 or better.
