Man United vs Brentford Odds
| Man United Odds | -138 |
| Brentford Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
No team needs the international break more than Manchester United right now, after the Red Devils lost consecutive matches at home to Crystal Palace and Galatasaray in the Premier League and Champions League. Erik ten Hag’s seat is getting warmer as the results continue to crater and the injury situation doesn’t look much more encouraging for this match.
United will host Brentford in their final match before the break. The Bees have struggled for form themselves since they beat Fulham in match week 2, with zero wins in seven matches in all competitions. The underlying numbers still appear perfectly for the Bees overall, who now will get a chance to partake in their favorite role — underdog spoiler against the big six.
Brentford famously beat Manchester United 4-0 last year in London and then lost the reverse fixture 1-0 at Old Trafford. This is largely the same Brentford side that beat Manchester City twice, beat Liverpool, beat Spurs and tied Arsenal in last year's campaign. No non-big six side has taken more points off the big six than Thomas Frank's outfit this year, and they've already tied Spurs and lost a competitive 1-0 to Newcastle this year.
Here is why I'm betting the underdog in Man United vs Brentford.
Man United
United will once again be playing a makeshift backline due to injuries across the board. Ten Hag has turned the dial to be more attacking and press higher up the pitch this season, but the general decline and aging from Casemiro has left the backup defenders even more exposed in transition.
The injury/suspended list for United is as follows: Lisandro Martinez, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Luke Shaw, Tyrell Malacia, Sergio Reguilon, Antony, Jadon Sancho and Kobbie Mainoo. United had to play new signing Sofyan Amrabat at left back against Galatasaray, an experiment that went quite poorly. Amrabat would be ideal next to Casemiro in a double pivot, but moving him to left back has continued to leave Casemiro exposed.
United have had major problems with teams playing it long against them and starting attacks from there. They’ve also badly struggled to contain late third man runs into the penalty area. United have forced the most high turnovers in the league, but are also 12th in non-penalty xGA, 13th in shots allowed and 14th in big scoring chances conceded. When the first line of the press gets beaten, the team is extremely exposed and flawed.
Brentford won't try to play through the press — they'll just play over it.
Their textbook attacking set up is to send long balls to Bryan Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa and let them do most of the work in creating chances. The Bees will occasionally send an extra runner into the penalty area too and that’s been extremely effective for teams scoring goals against Manchester United.
Brentford
Brentford came flying out of the gate at the start of the Premier League season and they have predictably regressed back toward a league average attack now. The Bees rank right around league average in shots, big chances, box entries and xG created. Some of the numbers are inflated because the Bees did get some penalties and red card luck this season in the aggregate.
Frank's side has been remarkably consistent in its out of possession defense for multiple seasons now. The Bees are consistently above average defensively. They rank fifth in NPxG allowed and also have the best shot quality differential in the entire league. Brentford allow the longest average shot distance in the league and take shots from the third-closest.
Compare this to Manchester United, who are allowing the highest average shot quality in the PL and are generating below average shot distances for their own attack. The Red Devils will likely take more shots in this match, but Brentford solve that math problem by getting higher quality shots and conceding lower quality ones.
Brentford have run poorly from a variance perspective of late and struggle to separate from inferior teams. The Bees remain solid all around and profile so well as an underdog.
Man United vs Brentford
Pick & Prediction
The Red Devils have badly underperformed their xG in attack — seven goals from 11.1 xG — but the defense is below average in every defensive category from xG to shots to box entries conceded. We now have a sample of 45 league matches in two years, and United have been about 5 xG better than the Bees. That doesn’t get you anywhere near this still inflated moneyline price on Man United.
I’d bet Brentford +0.5 at +110 or better and sprinkle the ML at +350 or better.
