Man United vs Brighton Odds
| Man United Odds | +115 |
| Brighton Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
Manchester United look to rebound from their loss to Arsenal before the international break when they host Brighton at Old Trafford.
The Red Devils lost at the death to Arsenal after putting up a valiant effort on the road. Erik Ten Hag is dealing with a conundrum at the moment. He has a whole host of injuries in his starting XI and is also switching up his tactics trying to turn Manchester United into what he calls "the best transition team in the world." Doing that while having to face Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton is not the best of situations when Bayern Munich are waiting for them on Wednesday in the Champions League.
Brighton are off to a flying start in the Premier League, winning three of their first four matches. The Seagulls got a resounding 3-1 victory at the Amex over Newcastle behind an Evan Ferguson hat-trick before the international break. De Zerbi has his team playing some of the most attractive football in the Premier League and the Seagulls did the double over Manchester United last season before losing to them on penalties in the FA Cup semifinal. Will we see them get back to back wins at Old Trafford in successive seasons?
Read on for my Man United vs Brighton pick.
Man United
This is about as terrible of a matchup as it gets for Manchester United. They have struggled under Ten Hag when teams man mark press them. They’ve tried to build out against them and it hasn’t worked. As good as Casemiro is, he is not someone who can receive the ball with his back to the defense and guide Manchester United out of a high press, as he’s turned the ball over a whopping 20 times inside United’s own final third.
Then there is the fact that Manchester United have an injury crisis on their hands. Right now Luke Shaw, Antony and Raphael Varane are all out. Mason Mount is doubtful, while Sofyan Amrabat and Lisandro Martinez are both questionable. That could be five of their usual guys in their starting XI with three of them being in their backline potentially being out going up against one of the best offenses in the Premier League.
There is also the fact that Manchester United have looked incredibly gassed towards the end of matches. Ten Hag is trying to turn them into a high pressing transitional team, but the players clearly are not ready or conditioned enough to play that style. Per understat.com, Manchester United have conceded 7.1 xG in their four matches and 3.5 of those have come in the 76th minute or later.
Brighton
The Seagulls are averaging 2.04 npxG through four matches, which is very close to what they averaged under De Zerbi last season. They will have some injury concerns for their attack with Julio Encisco out with Evan Ferguson and Danny Welbeck being questionable. However, Brighton have so much depth that they can just start Joao Pedro up top and not miss a beat.
Tactically, De Zerbi wants his team to play out of the back and baits the opponent into pressing them high, so they can create space behind the first line of defense and then once they beat the first line of the press it becomes a transition attack out of a build up, which is why Brighton are so good offensively.
The problem is though Brighton have been electric offensively, they’ve been torched pretty badly in transition this season. The Seagulls have conceded a whopping eight big scoring chances in four matches. The problem that Brighton are running into is Levi Colwill was an elite ball stopping center back in his pairing with Lewis Dunk, but now teams are targeting the left center back position for Brighton and they haven't found a stable pairing to go along with Dunk.
Man United vs Brighton
Pick & Prediction
This is a really difficult spot for Manchester United. Potentially three of their defensive back four are injured in addition to two attacking players out and Bayern Munich waiting on deck.
The Red Devils are not going to be able to play out of the back with great success in this match, so they are either going to try to play through one of the best high presses in the Premier League or they have to send the ball long off of goal kicks.
While Brighton have been awesome offensively, there are some real defensive issues in transition for this team that I am not sure De Zerbi has an answer to right now.
I know it’s early, but as of right now both Brighton and Manchester United matches are averaging over 3.5 xG, so I am expecting absolute chaos here with a boat load of chances at both ends.
I have 3.79 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over.
