Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace Odds
Manchester United Odds | -260 |
Crystal Palace Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +390 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / -102) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+104 / -134) |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Manchester United host Crystal Palace in a crucial encounter to solidify their position inside the top four.
United are comfortably sitting inside the top four and now have booked their place in the League Cup final to try and win their first trophy in five years. The Red Devils just played Crystal Palace two weeks ago, losing their slim lead in stoppage time, so they will be looking to hold onto a lead this time around.
Crystal Palace are in the middle of a really tough run of matches. Their last four matches in the Premier League have been against Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester United and Newcastle. The Eagles are currently in 12th place, which is honestly where they should be given their underlying metrics.
Manchester United Playing Up to High Standard
Manchester United are in a great run of form at the moment, despite the loss to Arsenal the last time they were out in the Premier League. The Red Devils won two matches over Nottingham Forest in the League Cup semifinals and then beat Reading in the FA Cup.
Erik Ten Hag's side has been really good against lesser competition, especially defensively. When Manchester United has played non-Big Six teams this season, they are only allowing 0.95 xG per 90 minutes.
Something United have done well under Ten Hag is creating low-event style matches. In even game states or when Manchester United are leading by one goal, they’re only allowing 1.04 xG per 90 minutes. Casemiro has also been so important for Manchester United defensively because since he started playing regularly in the Starting XI, United are only allowing 0.80 xG per 90 minutes, and without him they’re allowing 1.65 xG per 90 minutes.
Crystal Palace Dealing With Tough Slate
Since the World Cup break, Crystal Palace have created over 1 xG against just one opponent and it was Bournemouth. In their six matches since the break they’ve also only created two big scoring chances, which both came against Bournemouth.
For the season, they have been very poor in the final third, as Palace are only averaging 0.83 npxG per 90 minutes, have created just 11 big scoring chances and are 19th in touches in the penalty area.
They did nothing against Manchester United in the last meeting, creating just 0.5 xG off of 10 shots, completing just seven passes into the penalty area and amassing just 20 touches in the penalty area. To make matters worse, Wilfred Zaha is out for this match.
The Crystal Palace defense has been a major problem this season as well, especially against good competition. In nine matches against the Big Six plus Newcastle, Crystal Palace have conceded 15.4 xG. Against everyone else, they’ve only conceded 12 xG in 11 matches.
Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace Pick
This match should have a very similar game script as the last one at Selhurst Park. Manchester United will likely dominate possession, while Palace will put a premium on defending very compact in and around their penalty area.
Even if Manchester United score early, as the last match showed, they have been incredibly good a shutting games down and also aren't really looking to get forward in attack to run up the score.
With Christian Eriksen out injured, that means Fred is going to come on, which is a more defensive option for Manchester United. Crystal Palace's best attacker is also out.
Thus, I like the value on the under 2.5.
