Newcastle vs Luton Town Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -240 |
| Luton Town Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +390 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Newcastle look to build off their 3-1 win over Aston Villa when they host Luton Town at St. James Park.
The Magpies had been in terrible form in December and early January, but they have since ripped off back to back wins against Fulham and Luton Town. Eddie Howe has switched some things up tactically that had a real positive effect against Aston Villa. We will see if those changes continue to give them success here against Luton Town.
Luton Town got an emphatic 4-0 win over Brighton at home on Tuesday, which brought them out of the relegation zone for the time being. The Hatters pulled off a stunning 1-0 win over Newcastle in the previous meeting, but getting a result from one of the toughest environments in world football is going to be a tall order.
Read on for our Newcastle vs Luton Town prediction.
Newcastle
Newcastle made a big change to their out of possession structure against Aston Villa, which completely caught Unai Emery by surprise and was the main reason why Newcastle delivered Aston Villa their first Premier League loss at Villa park.
When Newcastle were at their peak they were pressing out of a 4-3-3 and causing all sorts of problems for their opponents. Then when they were hampered by injuries and a congested schedule of fixtures, Eddie Howe switched them to a passive 4-5-1, which didn't yield great results.
In the 4-3-3 high press, the midfielders are asked to cover a lot of ground for it to work effectively. When Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton and Sandro Tonali were all available it wasn't that big of an issue, which is why Newcastle got off to a hot start. However, Joelinton is out for a long time and Sandro Tonali is suspended for the rest of the season. With Sean Longstaff and Lewis Miley, Newcastle haven't been as effective with their high press.
So, what Eddie Howe did was go man to man across the back line meaning the fullbacks were tasked with tracking Aston Villa's wing backs and the center backs were tracking Ollie Watkins and Moussa Diaby. Typically when a striker or attacking midfielder drops deep to help in build up against Newcastle's press, the midfielders are tasked with running back to help after pressing high. That means it saves the midfielders a lot of extra running, but it also is a very aggressive approach from Newcastle.
Eddie Howe showed an adaptability last night as he changed his pressing structure.
It was a massive move for Newcastle. Their pressing structure has remained relatively unchanged since Howe joined the club.
Given time on the training ground, Howe can implement
new patterns… pic.twitter.com/JdyfPNKijc— Tactx (@Tactx_) January 31, 2024
In this matchup, Luton Town are likely going to try and play very direct, so if Newcastle are going to try and deploy this structure and play a high line, they are going to be vulnerable to many long balls over the top.
Luton Town
Luton Town went with a really aggressive approach out possession against Brighton and it paid massive dividends. You have two choices against Brighton. Either you sit in a passive low block or you aggressively high press them and try to force turnovers. Luton Town opted to give Brighton what they want and press them high, which causes a bunch of problems for Brighton's build up leading to numerous chances.
My guess is they will go with that same approach here against Newcastle because of how they have performed in a passive low block this season. Luton Town are one of the worst teams in the Premier League at defending the middle of the pitch, so it's no surprise that in their last 13 matches they have conceded the most expected goals and big scoring chances in the Premier League.
They are however effective when they choose to press opponents high. Luton Town have 30 shots this season off of forced high turnovers, which is the same amount as Manchester City.
The only other method that Luton Town have had to scored goals is off of corners and crosses. They have attempted the most crosses in the Premier League and have the highest xG per set piece off of corners. The reason for that is because they like to overload the back post against the opponents smaller fullbacks, which worked wonders against Brighton.
Newcastle vs Luton Town
Prediction
These are two have been awesome set piece offenses recently, which ultimately is going to play a massive part in this match. Luton Town's ability to overload the back post and be effective at creating chances off of corners is going to be huge against Newcastle, who are 18th in xG per set pieces allowed. Newcastle have scored four of their last five goals off of set pieces, while Luton Town have been very average at defending them.
Just because Eddie Howe changed their pressing structure it does not automatically mean that Newcastle have been completely fixed defensively. Since the beginning of November they have allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League and still have a long way to go to fix their defensive issues.
With both of these defenses being suspect in a match that should be very back and forth with both teams preferring to play in transition, I like the value on the over.
