Premier League Best Bets | Picks, Predictions for Leicester City vs Liverpool, More

A couple of huge matches this weekend in terms of the title race will be played in the Premier League. Arsenal are hosting Brighton and Everton are hosting Manchester City.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Aston Villa vs Tottenham

Dabbundo: Aston Villa are now power rated in the market similarly to Tottenham with three matches to play in the season. Unai Emery’s side has continued to improve defensively and just turned in another defensive performance with less than 1 xG conceded. Villa have conceded six xG total in their last seven matches combined. I’m buying the defensive improvements in this Villa side because of Emery’s track record improving a team’s defensive shape at past clubs — most recently Villarreal as they made the Champions League semifinal.

I’m not quite buying the improved attacking output of Villa being sustainable, especially now against a good penalty box defense that isn’t going to press much or give much space for Ollie Watkins to get in behind. Both defenses are quite passive — both are bottom half in high turnovers forced and in passes per defensive action.

Villa are also just 14th in expected threat in attack, so they’re not very good at sustaining attacks in the opposition penalty area. They’ll get plenty of space and time on the ball to complete defensive possession at home against Spurs, but Spurs are still an above average defense in terms of xG allowed and average shot quality conceded.

Despite their budget and preseason expectations as a top four contender and team, Tottenham are just eighth in xT, seventh in xG created and 13th field tilt. We’re at the bottom of the market with the price on Spurs here, but I prefer to play a plus-money under 2.5.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+110 or better)

Manchester United vs Wolves

Cunningham:This total is way too inflated for me, especially given the styles of play of both of these teams. 

Erik Ten Hag is demanding that his team play out of the back, but that has come with varied success, especially with David de Gea struggling out of the back and center backs injured. The teams that have given Manchester United problems are the teams willing to press them high to try and disrupt their build up play. The matches against Sevilla and Newcastle are a perfect example of this, but Wolves are not a team that are going to press United high. 

On the offensive end, Wolves are the kings of low quality chances. They are second to last in big scoring chances, are only averaging 0.92 npxG per 90 minutes, but have the seventh-most final third entries in the Premier League. Wolves have three matches left to go in the season and the striking quartet of Hee Chan Hwang, Diego Costa, Matheus Cunha and Raul Jimemez have scored a total five goals.

I'll take the under at +125 or better.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+125 or better)

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Everton vs Manchester City

Dabbundo: Pep Guardiola said after Manchester City’s victory against Leeds United that he had to rotate because multiple players claimed they were tired and needed a rest. Guardiola then played his best XI a full 90 minutes in a grueling contest at Real Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday, and he’s going to need all of those players again for the second leg on Wednesday at home.

I’d expect rotation from Manchester City once again. The Cityzens have a ton of depth, but the potential rotation of Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish hurts the ball progression and ability to pounce on an aggressive and open Everton defense that will try to disrupt City’s build-up play at home.

Some defensive rotation could lead to some cracks there as well, and we’ve seen City switch off time and time again defensively when playing with leads in the second half. It’s true that City are far and away the best team in the world, but this is a nightmare spot with rotation looming against a desperate Everton.

Everton have been worse defensively under Sean Dyche, but the attack is clearly trending upward. They’re forcing more high turnovers, lowered their passes per defensive action and can score on City.

City will probably win, but the rotated Cityzens are more vulnerable and overvalued in the market. I’m splitting my best bet on the +1.5 and the team total over.

Picks: Everton +1.5 (-115 or better), Everton team total over 0.5 (-115 or better)

Leicester City vs Liverpool

Cunningham: Dean Smith has come in and completely made Leicester into an offensive power house. After four matches in charge, the Foxes' attack has generated a whopping 13 xG and 10 big scoring chances.

He hasn't really changed the formation from what Brendan Rodgers was playing — it's still a 4-2-3-1 concept — but what has helped is playing loads of attackers.

I know Brentford only created 0.2 xG against Liverpool, but they constantly were threatening Liverpool’s backline. The Reds were very fortunate to have couple of offsides called on Brentford, including a goal that got cancelled by VAR.

Liverpool's offense is finally turning back into the elite attack we've seen for so many years, creating a combined 17.5 xG in the seven matches since Jurgen Klopp inverted Trent Alexander-Arnold into midfield.

That provides Liverpool the ability to build up in a 3-2-5 shape and push a ton of attackers forward to create numerical advantages against the last line of defense. Alexander-Arnold has been one of the best progressors of the ball and suppliers in the Premier League for a long time now, so this has given Liverpool new life. It also has helped them breakdown low blocks, but also makes them dangerous in transitional opportunites, which they should have a ton of against an abysmal transition defense like Leicester under Smith.

This is going to be an incredibly open match given how Leicester are playing under Smith, so let’s bet on some chaos. I have 3.49 goals projected for this match, and I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3.5 (+120 or better)