Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Fulham vs. Arsenal

The Premier League top four race got a whole lot more interesting this past weekend with Liverpool putting seven past Manchester United along with Newcastle and Tottenham losing on the road. This weekend none of the Big Six are playing against each other, but there still some fascinating matches on the slate.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Bournemouth vs. Liverpool 

Dabbundo: It took just nine seconds for the Cherries to score at Arsenal on Saturday. Bournemouth deserved a result from that performance, but a winner from Arsenal on the final kick of the game ensured that the Cherries would get no points from a very encouraging performance. The Cherries only took four shots, but all four were extremely high quality. They produced 1.4 xG, which is the sixth straight game that Bournemouth has produced at least one xG.

I spent most of December and January betting against this Cherries attack that had a ton of regression coming. After a brutal run with very few goals, the Cherries are innovating and finding new ways to get the most out of an attacking group that lacks depth and high end talent.

The Cherries are still the worst attack in the league this year by xG, but they are pretty good on set pieces and crosses. That’s two major areas of weakness for the Reds this season. As much as the Reds are turning the corner and the attack is fit and firing, there are still defensive questions.

Liverpool has been terrible at stopping crosses from wide areas and set pieces this season. Those two weaknesses give the Cherries an opening at home. Liverpool won the reverse fixture 9-0 too, so you’d expect some type of response from Bournemouth at home on Saturday.

They only managed one point from the matches because the defense is also terrible, but Bournemouth did score against Manchester City, Newcastle and Arsenal in the last month — the league’s three best defenses. I’d bet both teams to score at -120 or better.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-112) (BetRivers)

Leeds vs. Brighton

Cunningham: I really don’t know how Leeds is going to stop Brighton in this match. We’ve seen this before with Brighton when they face team that want to press high, they bait them into pressing and they play right through the middle of the pitch, out wide to Mitoma or March and then create chance after chance after chance.

Since Roberto De Zerbi has taken over, Brighton is averaging 2.01 xG per 90 minutes and in their last seven matches they have created 16.2 expected goals and 11 big scoring chances. Additionally, since Zerbi took over on Oct. 1 Brighton has a +0.97 npxGD per 90 minutes, that is third-best in the Premier League during that time span.

Even last weekend against one of the best low block teams in the Premier League they scored four goals and put up 3.5 expected goals in one of the most impressive offensive displays in the Premier League this season.

When Leeds does face teams that can play through pressure, things have not gone well for them. The top five teams in Offensive PPDA are Manchester City, Arsenal, Brighton, Leicester, and Liverpool. In five matches against those five teams, Leeds has conceded 9.3 expected goals.

The last time that Brighton faced Leeds, they won 1-0, created 2.0 and that was before Mitoma and Ferguson regularly playing in the starting XI.

I have Brighton projected for 2.01 goals, so I like the value on their team total Over 1.5 at +100.

Pick: Brighton Team Total Over 1.5 (+100) (Caesars)

Fulham vs. Arsenal

Cunningham: Some of the Fulham negative regression on the defensive side of the ball finally came to fruition against Brentford on Monday night. Brentford put three in the back of the net and created 2.3 expected goals.

An important note from that match was Brentford’s ability to play the ball through the middle of the pitch, which is something Arsenal has done better than anyone in the Premier League this season. You could also see how big of a loss João Palhinha was for Fulham and how big of a drop off it is to Lukic.

The concern here for Fulham are the exact same concerns when they faced Arsenal at the Emirates earlier in the season. Fulham scored an early goal and then tried to sit in their low block, defend for their lives and get out with a result and they were unable to do it. In that match, Arsenal had a field tilt of 83.1%, created 2.6 expected goals, and had 16 penalty box shots.

If something like that happens again, Arsenal is able to create their box midfield with Zinchenko inverting and is able to live inside Fulham’s final third, they’re going to create well over two expected goals. 

The Fulham defense is still due for negative regression, that doesn’t just go away because Brentford put three in the back of the net. Since the World Cup break, Fulham has now allowed seven goals off 16.6 expected and when they’ve faced the Big Six this season, they’re allowing 2.23 xG per match.

Additionally, in that previous meeting, Arsenal scored the match winning goal off of a set piece, which is a huge advantage they have over Fulham with the Cottagers allowing the sixth most expected goals off of set pieces and Arsenal creating the second most expected goals off of set pieces.

I have Arsenal’s team total projected at 2.72, so I love the value on them Over 1.5 goals at -140.

Pick: Arsenal Team Total Over 1.5 (-140) (Caesars)

Newcastle vs. Wolves

Dabbundo: The market keeps setting Wolves totals against average attacks at 2.5 with little juice to the under, and I continue to think that nothing has really changed at Wolves since Julen Lopategui became manager.

Wolves did play a handful of higher event games immediately after his hiring, but it wasn’t supported by the underlying numbers at all. Wolves just played a very low-event match with Spurs and showed very little attacking promise at home. They did score a goal on a rebound and won the match 1-0, but Wolves produced just 0.6 xG and continue to have the worst shot quality in the entire Premier League.

Newcastle is an even better defense than Tottenham. The Magpies are third in the Premier League in xGA for the season. Even though Eddie Howe’s side lost 2-0 at Manchester City last week , the defense held up quite well and conceded just 11 shots and 1.3 xGA in the defeat.

Newcastle has played a really difficult fixture list in the last two months and that has contributed to the regression and lack of wins. But Newcastle struggles to break down teams that are willing to sit deep and protect the penalty area without getting into a back and forth transitional match.

The Magpies showed this in the 1-1 draw with Bournemouth and 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace. The attacking quality and creativity isn’t that of that of a true top four contender and that’s why the attack has regressed from a top four unit in production down to seventh in xGF.

My projections make this total right at 2.25, and I’d bet the under 2.5 at -130 or better in Sunday’s matchup.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-129) (BetRivers)