Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Brighton vs. Arsenal

There were goals galore out of the World Cup break in the Premier League, so we'll see if that continues into the weekend

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Liverpool vs. Leicester

Cunningham: Liverpool’s struggles have really put a damper on how good their offense has been. The Reds are averaging 1.79 npxG per 90 minutes, they have created the most big scoring chances in the Premier League, and they’re averaging 39.3 touches in the penalty area per 90 minutes.

They do have some injury concerns for this match, as Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino and Luis Diaz are all going to be out due to injury, but their main striker Darwin Nunez has the second-highest xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League. Mo Salah is also starting to find his form as he's scored seven times in his last seven appearances.

Leicester's defense has really struggled this season, as they currently sit 17th in npxG allowed per 90 minutes. Danny Ward has been a big reason why their defense has been as bad as it's been. He is the fourth-worst goalkeeper in the Premier League in terms of Post Shot xG +/- at -3.3.

Their defense tends to struggle when they have to play good competition. Against the top half of the table this season, Leicester are allowing 1.81 xG per 90 minutes versus only allowing 1.2 xG per 90 minutes against the bottom half of the table.

They are among the top five in offensive PPDA, but when Leicester have to face solid pressing teams, they haven’t fared very well. Liverpool’s high press doesn’t have the same bite or intensity that it had last season, but they’ve still forced the third-most high turnovers. Leicester are also allowing 1.67 xG per 90 minutes when playing from behind this season, so this could get out of hand if they go behind.

This has a Liverpool blow out written all over it. The Reds' offense has again been one of the best in the Premier League, and their ability to create a ton of chances with a lead makes this the perfect opportunity to bet them to win by a decent margin here.

I have Liverpool's spread projected at -1.81, so I am going to chase a bigger price and take Liverpool -2.

Pick: Liverpool -2 (+140 at BetRivers)

Fulham vs. Southampton

Dabbundo: Southampton lost its first match under new manager Nathan Jones, but the Saints are at the bottom of the market here as they travel to play Fulham on Saturday.

Southampton may be dead last in the table, but that’s mostly because of unsustainable opponents’ finishing against them. They rank just 13th in Expected Goal Difference this season, and they’ve suffered from the worst shot stopping in the entire Premier League. Although you may not think Gavin Bazunu is a good shot-stopping goalkeeper, it’s impossible for him to continue to run as poorly as he has at this point in the season. 

The Saints still will look to press high and play directly even with their new manager, but Jones’ first matchup against Brighton was an unfavorable one due to the Seagulls' ability to entice an opposing press and then play through it. Fulham is significantly worse at ball retention under pressure and is actually the worst defense in the PL by xG allowed.

Fulham continues to produce results under Marco Silva, but the time has come to fade them and sell high off the excellent start. The Cottagers sit eighth in the table despite the 14th-best xG difference. I have the Saints as a slightly better team in my own power ratings as well, so even after accounting for home-field advantage, I can’t get Fulham to an even money home favorite. 

The Cottagers are really bad at stopping crosses, and that’s a major way that the Saints want to attack them. Southampton isn’t as bad as their results thus far, and Fulham isn’t as good as theirs. 

It’s a classic Premier League spot as positive regression looms for Jones. I’ll take Southampton +0.5 at -135 or better.

Pick: Southampton +0.5 (-120 at PointsBet)

Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace

Cunningham: These are the two worst offenses in the Premier League. 

Bournemouth did nothing against Chelsea on Tuesday, creating just 0.5 xG while not attempting a shot inside the box until the 78th minute of the match when it had gotten completely stretched with Chelsea up 2-0. Bournemouth for the season is only averaging 0.67 npxG per 90 minutes, 8.2 shots per 90 and just 16.7 touches in the penalty area per 90 minutes. They’ve also scored 12 goals off of 8.4 expected over their last eight matches. 

Crystal Palace, I don’t know what is going on with the Eagles defensively, as they’re 15th in npxG, 15th in shots per 90 minutes and 16th in Big Scoring Chances.

To go from a top-five defense to where they are now is truly astonishing. However, if you look through their results, Manchester City, Liverpool, Newcastle and Fulham have created over two expected goals against them, but in all of their other matches, they’re only allowing 1.04 xG per 90 minutes. So, really it’s just been a few bad matches against some of the best offenses in the Premier League and being down two men against Fulham. 

Crystal Palace offensively has been quite terrible as well, averaging only 0.85 npxG per 90 minutes, which is second-to-last in the Premier League behind only Bournemouth. They have only created nine Big Scoring Chances on the season and are among the bottom five in every single offensive category. 

I have BTTS-No projected at -143, so I love the value at +100. 

Pick: Both Teams to Score- No (+100 at DraftKings)

Brighton vs. Arsenal 

Dabbundo: Arsenal had no issues dispatching West Ham at home on Boxing Day but there were some warning signs for the Gunners in life without Gabriel Jesus. He’s a key piece to linking the attack, and his passing and dribbling ability in tight spaces isn’t an attribute that Eddie Nketiah really possesses. There’s a downgrade in the Arsenal attack, even if Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Martin Odegaard remain excellent.

The Gunners will face a much stiffer challenge for midfield control and possession in this game at Brighton than they did at home vs. West Ham. We’re reaching the top of the market on Arsenal too as conversations of a possible league title emerge. 

Arsenal ranks third in Expected Threat Differential, which measures the difference in possession in dangerous areas and attacking chances that don’t necessarily always lead to shot attempts. That’s impressive and only behind Liverpool and Manchester City. The Seagulls actually rank fourth in this metric, which is a sign of how good they’ve been at tilting the field against their opponents under both Graham Potter and Roberto De Zerbi. 

Brighton has been a difficult side to overwhelm because they’re so good on the ball and can disrupt Arsenal’s possession structure. Arsenal does have a solid edge on set pieces in the matchup, but the Seagulls are too good to be catching half a goal at home. 

I like Brighton +0.5 at -140 or better.

Pick: Brighton +0.5 (-132 at BetRivers)