Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Liverpool vs Man United

With Arsenal's win in the midweek over Everton, they have moved five points clear of Manchester City at the top of table That sets up yet another fantastic Premier League slate that features  Manchester City vs Newcastle and Liverpool vs Manchester United

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Manchester City vs Newcastle

Dabbundo: Manchester City got exposed in transition in the first meeting between these two clubs, which ended 3-3 in August. If we know anything about City manager Pep Guardiola, he will make tactical adjustments that hedge to the side of caution when uncertain about his team's ability to control matches. 

Much has been made about City's inability to keep a clean sheet in the last month too. Ederson is stuck on 99 clean sheets in the league, and City have conceded exactly one goal in each of their last five Premier League matches.

Four of those five matches were away from home, and they've conceded just 7.4 xGA in 12 home matches this season. City had 69% of the ball in that first meeting too, so I'd expect to see plenty of defensive possession and Guardiola keeping the hand brake on to prevent Newcastle transition.

As much as I've been a skeptic of Newcastle’s attacking numbers, the defensive numbers look sustainable. They're a top-three defense in terms of xGA, they protect the penalty area well with midfield ball winning and have good individual center back defending. They're top-six in expected threat allowed and top five in every other key defensive metric from box entries to set piece xGA.

The attack continues to slide for Newcastle, but they can make it difficult for City to break them down on Saturday and keep this game under the total. 

Pick: Under 2.5 (+115 via Caesars)

Wolves vs Tottenham

Dabbundo: Spurs won their last two league matches against West Ham and Chelsea with elite defending and doing just enough in attack to collect all of the points. Tottneham created one big scoring chance in those two matches combined, and it came from a set piece goal from Harry Kane. 

At the other end of the pitch, if you were to design an attack that Spurs are built to stop, it would look something like Wolves. They shoot a ton from distance and don’t create high quality big scoring chances. Wolves love to cross the ball into the penalty area and that’s the strength of the Spurs defense. 

Tottenham’s defense has shown cracks this season, but for the most part it is good at defending within the penalty area and preventing teams from getting high quality chances. That means Wolves will be shooting quite often from long range and may put up good shot total numbers without ever looking like scoring. 

Despite new manager Julen Lopetegui taking over for Bruno Lage at Wolves, there hasn’t been much of a difference in their attacking outputs from an xG per 90 perspective. Their process and attackers are both mediocre and while they were due for a good run of positive finishing regression, this is a tough matchup for them going forward.

Wolves defend set pieces well enough and are at home. This match should be a cagey affair and I’d bet the under 2.5 at -130 or better.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-130 via DraftKings)

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Liverpool vs Manchester United 

Cunningham: This match actually sets up perfectly for Manchester United, who have shown that they are at their best when the game becomes transitional.

Against Newcastle, who is one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League, United allowed them to tilt the field on them at 65.0%, conceded 61.2% possession and only had a 65.1% build up completion percentage.

Liverpool finally put in back-to-back good defensive performance against Crystal Palace and Wolves. However, the problem that exists for Liverpool in this match is Klopp needs to employ the 4-5-1 mid block and allow Manchester United to have the ball, but he’s too stubborn and is likely going to play right into Ten Hag’s hands.

While Liverpool’s defense was better against Crystal Palace and Wolves, when they’ve had to face the big six it hasn’t gone well. In five matches against the big six they have conceded 8.3 xG. They also gave up five goals against Real Madrid, who countered them to perfection in the Champions League.

The Manchester United offense has run hot since the World Cup break, but they also are creating a ton of chances. In their last 10 Premier League matches Manchester United has created 20.1 xG and have created 14 big scoring chances in the process. 

I have 3.7 expected goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3 (+104 via BetRivers)

Brentford vs Fulham 

Cunningham: This is it, it is time for the Fulham luckbox to stop once and for all. 

What this Fulham defense has done is truly remarkable. Since the World Cup break, Fulham have conceded four goals off of 14.2 xG. Even in the FA Cup against Leeds on Tuesday, they kept a clean sheet once again, but conceded 1.53 xG.

This is the same Fulham defense that has conceded the most big scoring chances in the Premier League, fifth-most expected goals off of set pieces and is dead last in final third to penalty box conversion rate.

Additionally, not only have Fulham been over-performing defensively, but now they are over-performing offensively. They are also going to be without their best midfielder Palhinha, who is suspended for this match.

Brentford are really good at the Brentford Community Stadium, with a +4.7 xGD, while Fulham are at -8 xGD away from Craven Cottage. 

I have Brentford projected at -174, so I love the value on them at +100 to grab all three points. 

Pick: Brentford ML (+100 via DraftKings)