Manchester City now have a stranglehold on the Premier League title race, but there is still plenty left to play with the top four race and relegation battle heating up as we reach the stretch run of the season.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Cunningham's Model Projections
Dabbundo's Model Projections
Liverpool vs Fulham
| Liverpool Odds | -400 |
| Fulham Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-250 / +200) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: Liverpool's offense is finally turning back into the elite attack we've seen for so many years, creating a combined 13.5 expected goals (xG) in their last five matches. The Reds have looked better and better offensively lately, possibly thanks to Jurgen Klopp inverting Trent Alexander-Arnold into midfield over the past two matches.
That provides Liverpool the ability to build up in a 3-2-5 shape and push a ton of attackers forward to create numerical advantages against the last line of defense. Alexander-Arnold has been one of the best ball-progressors and suppliers in the Premier League for a long time now, so this has given Liverpool new life.
Fulham are comfortably in the middle of the table and that is a good thing because suspensions and injuries could have done them in. Aleksander Mitrovic has been suspended for a while now and will also miss this match. He's the most important player to his team in the Premier League, having created 12.3 of their 38.9 xG. In the 10 matches without Mitrovic, Fulham are averaging 0.76 xG per match. With him in the lineup, they’re averaging 1.37 xG per match.
The Fulham defense has been one of the worst in the Premier League all season, allowing 1.54 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes. They've been overperforming drastically and have been held up by 34-year-old American Tim Ream, who has played almost every minute for them this season. Unfortunately, Ream broke his arm and will miss the remainder of the season, so now Fulham has a gaping hole at center back going up against the hottest offense in the Premier League.
The Liverpool attack has been unstoppable at the moment and it doesn't look to be slowing down anytime soon, especially with all of their attackers finally healthy.
Going up against a Fulham defense that has nothing to play for and just lost its most important player in defense is a bad recipe. I have Liverpool projected for 2.96 goals, so I like the value on Liverpool's Team Total Over 2.5 at -120 (PointsBet).
Pick: Liverpool Team Total Over 2.5 |
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Manchester City vs West Ham
| Manchester City Odds | -450 |
| West Ham Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-250 / +200) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Manchester City’s power rating is now the far and away No. 1 team in the world by my numbers. Their current dominant form is a major driver of that rating, which now includes blowout victories at home against Liverpool, Newcastle and Arsenal — the next three best teams in my EPL power ratings. It also includes a comfortable two-leg victory against Bayern Munich and a dominant second leg at home against RB Leipzig — the second-best team in the Bundesliga.
When you combine City’s elite ball progression from fewer players committed forward with Haaland’s athleticism and elite finishing over xG, the result is arguably the best City team that Guardiola has ever had. Last year’s side had better xG difference per 90, but it didn’t have a finisher like Haaland.
All of that can be true, and City can still be inflated in the market with this two-goal favorite price. West Ham is an average team in the Premier League with a well-above-average defense. The Hammers may have conceded four to Crystal Palace last weekend, but the improved form of Michail Antonio and direct transition ability makes them a danger to City in transition on Wednesday.
West Ham is undervalued to find the back of the net against this defense, and you’re paying a tax on Manchester City because of their “must-win” status. As history shows, you’ll see teams play under more pressure and make defensive mistakes or poor giveaways because of this added pressure. City probably wins, but I’d bet both teams to score yes at -120 or better.
Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes |
