Fulham vs Leicester City Odds
Fulham Odds | +165 |
Leicester City Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / +100) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-145 / +115) |
| Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
To kick off Monday's action in the Premier League, Fulham hosts a desperate Leicester City squad trying to get out of the relegation zone.
Fulham has already secured safety for next season in the Premier League and are very close to securing a finish in the top half of the table, which would be a major accomplishment for head coach Marco Silva. Though they've been throughly dominated in their last two outings against Manchester City and Liverpool, this will be a much easier opponent for Fulham.
Leicester are fighting to get out of the relegation zone and may have gotten a lifeline with Leeds losing to Manchester City on Saturday. Dean Smith has come in and made the Foxes better offensively, but the defense is still a liability. That may give way to another chaotic match.
Fulham
Fulham are comfortably in the middle of the table, which is a good thing because suspensions and injuries could have done them in.
Aleksandar Mitrovic has been suspended for a while now and will miss this match. He's the most important player to his team in the Premier League as he's created 12.3 of Fulham's 38.9 xG. In 11 matches without Mitrovic, Fulham are averaging 0.76 xG per match. With Mitrovic in the lineup, they’re putting up 1.37 xG per match.
He also makes a massive difference because of Fulham's style of play. They want to get the ball out wide and swing in crosses because Mitrovic is a dangerous aerial threat. Fulham has completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area of any team in the Premier League, but now they don't have that threat in the box.
The Fulham defense has been one of the worst in the Premier League, allowing 1.53 npxG per 90 minutes. They also aren't a great pressing team, which is a worry against Leicester, who are a top five team at playing through pressure.
Overperforming drastically, Fulham has been held up by 34-year-old American Tim Ream, who has played almost every minute this season. Unfortunately for Fulham, Ream broke his arm and will miss the remainder of the season; they now have a gaping hole at center back going up against the hottest offense in the Premier League.
Leicester City
Dean Smith has come in and completely revolutionized Leicester's offense. After four matches in charge, the Foxes' attack has generated a whopping 10.2 expected goals.
He hasn't really changed the formation from what Brendan Rodgers was playing — it's still a 4-2-3-1 concept — but what has helped is playing loads of attackers. Kelechi Iheanacho is injured, which is a blow, but Leicester for a majority of the season has been without Youri Tielemans and James Maddison, who are their two best ball progressors and conductors of the attack.
The two of them have combined for 0.54 xAssists per 90 minutes when the replacements for them are far lower. Overall, Leicester has been a top-five team at playing through pressure and seventh in terms of xG per set piece, which gives them an advantage against a Fulham defense that ranks 13th in that category defensively.
Fulham vs Leicester City Pick
After being incredibly average offensively for most of the season, Dean Smith has given the Foxes new life with a much more aggressive approach. Having all of their attacking players healthy and the threat of relegation in their minds is going to create a very end-to-end style match, especially with Fulham being a transitional team.
However, this type of aggressive new approach has led Leicester, already a bottom-five defensive in terms of expected goals, to continue to get worse and exposed in counter-attack opportunities.
Therefore, I am going to target the Leicester team total over 1.5. I have 1.36 goals projected for the Foxes — the form under Smith, creating over two expected goals in each of his four matches in charge, is too good to ignore.
