This is it, the Premier League title race could be decided on Wednesday when Arsenal travel to the Etihad to take on Man City. There are also some fascinating encounters at the bottom of the table as well with the relegation battle heating up.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Cunningham's Model Projections
Dabbundo's Model Projections
Aston Villa vs Fulham
| Aston Villa Odds | -134 |
| Fulham Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: When you compare underlying numbers to position in the table, Aston Villa and Fulham are the two most overvalued teams at the moment in the entire Premier League. Villa have marginally improved under Unai Emery, but a lot of the improved results is down to an elite scoring and finishing run from Ollie Watkins in attack. Villa still sit just 16th in expected threat, showing that they’re not particularly good at sustaining pressure in the opposition’s final third.
Fulham’s defense is flawed overall, but it has improved as the season has progressed. The Cottagers don’t really press from the front and thus won’t turn Villa over when Emery’s side attempts to build from the back through defensive possession. The Cottagers are 16th in high turnovers forced. Fulham instead will drop off the front line and use a more mid-block approach that relies on the ball winning of Palhinha in midfield. They’ve been poor in some areas defensively and conceded plenty of chances, but Fulham also don't concede that many box entries for a newly promoted team.
The Cottagers are still without Mitrovic — one of the most valuable players to his team in the entire league. The attack has produced just 10.7 xG in 12 90s without him. I’m betting against both attacks sustaining their levels of goal production, especially given the mediocre underlying numbers.
I’d bet under 2.5 at -110 or better.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+100 via BetRivers)
Chelsea vs Brentford
| Chelsea Odds | -143 |
| Brentford Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: Despite Chelsea being on a poor finishing run, they’re drastically overvalued here against Brentford.
Maybe Frank Lampard doesn’t have what it takes to be manager because he’s reverted Chelsea back to his 4-5-1 passive press out possession, which is the same structure that Ralph Ragnick was playing at Manchester United last season. Lampard has also brought Chelsea out in four different formations in his four matches in charge, so this is truly a team without an identity or structure tactically at the moment.
The Blues have nothing left to play for at this point other than pride. They’re not going to qualify for a European spot, they’re out of the Champions League and they’re just waiting for the appointment of Mauricio Pochettino.
That’s a terrible combination going up against Brentford. The Bees have been one of the best teams against the big six this season, putting up a +0.3 xGD. In fact, along with Brighton they are the only teams to have a positive xGD against the big six this season.
Brentford are a team that thrives in direct transitional opportunities and is incredibly efficient at creating high quality chances, as they’ve created the sixth-most big scoring chances in the Premier League this season. Chelsea have not been the best team defending in transition this season and have conceded the 10th most big scoring chances.
I only have Chelsea projected at +124, so I love the value on Brentford +0.5 at +120.
Pick: Brentford +0.5 (+120)
West Ham vs Liverpool
| West Ham Odds | +290 |
| Liverpool Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Liverpool have won two consecutive matches and scored nine goals in those victories, but the defensive issues remain for Jurgen Klopp’s side. The Reds have struggled against teams that can hit them in direct and fast-paced transitions, and they’ve had problems defending set pieces for large parts of the season. Those are two areas where West Ham are quite strong.
Those two edges make Liverpool vulnerable defensively and thus overvalued as a -120 moneyline favorite. West Ham have been better than their results and they have been a positive regression candidate for large parts of the season, anchored by their passive but well-drilled defensive set up.
Liverpool may have found a new wrinkle by moving Trent Alexander-Arnold into a more central midfield role to hide him defensively and make up for his potential shortcomings, but that didn’t stop the Reds from conceding 1.5 xGA at Leeds less than two weeks ago. The Peacocks, like Forest, Bournemouth, Brentford and West Ham, are top five in direct attacking speed and frequency.
My projections make Liverpool +120 to win this match and I’d bet the Hammers to get a result at home at -115 or better.
Pick: West Ham +0.5 (-103 via BetRivers)
Man City vs Arsenal
| Manchester City Odds | -182 |
| Arsenal Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +137) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: Arsenal have lost 11 straight matches to Manchester City, but in both meetings against them this season I didn’t think City were the vastly superior side.
In their meeting in the FA Cup, Arsenal played a lot of second choice players while Manchester City went with a strong starting XI, but the Cityzens were only able to create 0.65 xG and get two penalty box shots against Arsenal’s defense.
We could go into all of the data but these are the best two teams in the Premier League and more than anything it’s going to come down to Arsenal’s ability to either play out the back without Saliba in the lineup or their ability to be good in direct transitional opportunities.
Pep Guardiola is the best manager in the world and it's because of his ability to constantly tinker with his tactics to find the right balance and always reinvent himself to try something new.
Against Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Wednesday, he went with a 3-2-4-1 formation. He played Bobby Akanji, Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake in the back, while inverting John Stones into the midfield alongside Rodri.
City were conceding way too many chances in transition, so Guardiolas' resolution to combat that issue was to play more defenders. Granted all of his defenders are outstanding ball carriers and passers, so there isn't too much of a drop off and Manchester City can continue to play out of the back and control possession.
The worry here for Manchester City is it looks like Nathan Ake is going to miss this match. He’s probably the most versatile defender Manchester City have and is outstanding defending in wide areas.
Manchester City’s xGD in the Premier League this season is +1.30 per 90 minutes, while Arsenal’s is +0.90. Home field advantage in the Premier League is worth around 0.30 xG. So, I have the Manchester City spread projected at -0.72, and I believe the Cityzens are overvalued.
Arsenal +1 at -110 or better has value in this matchup.
Pick: Arsenal +1 (-108 via BetRivers)
