West Ham vs Newcastle Odds
West Ham Odds | +275 |
Newcastle Odds | +115 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -150) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-110 / -110) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Just days after their biggest win of the season at home against Manchester United, Newcastle hit the road to take on West Ham in East London on Wednesday. The Magpies played United off the park in their 2-0 victory and moved up to third in the Premier League table. They are now the betting favorite to finish fourth in the EPL and bring Champions League football back to the northeast.
West Ham are a difficult opponent to break down though and the Hammers find themselves emerging out of the bottom of the relegation battle after their 1-0 home victory against Southampton on Sunday. They continue to struggle to create chances and finish off goals — the club's leading scorer has just four this year — but David Moyes's side is now a massive favorite to remain in the Premier League.
Newcastle took a lot of money after their dominant home win against a shorthanded United, and now my numbers suggest it's time to play against them in the final match of the EPL midweek slate.
West Ham in Line For Positive Regression
West Ham play one of the most passive styles in the entire Premier League, and in this matchup that may be a positive. The Hammers got by in years past because they got consistent plus production from Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen in attack. They were always great on attacking set pieces because of Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček too. As Antonio has regressed and aged, the attack has fallen off considerably.
The Hammers still do maintain their passive approach, which has them 18th in passes per defensive action. They're also 15th in field tilt, so they're not a possession first side. This defense is top seven in shots allowed, xG allowed, big scoring chances allowed and grades out as a top eight defense across the board this season.
West Ham had hoped to get Gianluca Scamacca back in the team, but he remains out with injury. Otherwise, the Hammers are as healthy as they've been all season entering this match with no other player on the current report.
As poor as the Hammers have been this season at creating chances, they've also finished well below their xG and there's some real positive regression coming for them in the future. The Hammers have scored just 25 goals from 34.9 xGF in this season.
Newcastle Need Quick Turnaround
Newcastle thrive on successfully creating high turnovers, but that's a hard way to get after such a possession-averse side like West Ham. The Magpies may not commit enough numbers forward to break down this stout defense away from home, and the result would be a bit of a stalemate. There's a reason that Newcastle have 11 draws this season — they're very tough to beat because of their style but also can struggle to generate margin from weaker opponents.
The Magpies completely dominated Manchester United in the midfield and ruined any chance of United progressing the ball from back to front. The Red Devils had the majority of the possession in the match, but they couldn't get the ball into the penalty area nearly as often as Newcastle did.
West Ham will present a very different challenge by sitting deeper and letting Newcastle have more of the possession. The Hammers are 18th in possession rate and yet don't concede high quality looks. Newcastle are just eighth in possession themselves, which shows that they're not always looking to boss matches with players going forward.
West Ham vs Newcastle Pick
The first matchup between these two teams is a bit intuitive as to what you may expect in this one. The Magpies scored early in the match on their second shot attempt inside five minutes, but West Ham's midfield got the better of Eddie Howe's side in the remainder of the match.
Newcastle only produced a total of eight shots, compared to 10 for West Ham. Star midfielder Bruno Guimaraes and Alexander Isak were not in the team on that day and they're significant upgrades in both ball progression and chance creation than their respective backups.
My projections make Newcastle +132 to win this match, and I show value on anything -130 or better for the Hammers to get at least a point at home.
