Tottenham vs Bournemouth Odds
Tottenham Odds | -220 |
Bournemouth Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +330 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-115 / -115) |
| Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Tottenham are in desperate need of three points on Saturday to keep pace in the battle for the top four when they host Bournemouth.
Christian Stellini guided Tottenham to a 2-1 over Brighton last Saturday, although they were incredibly fortunate to come away with three points. Spurs are sitting in fifth place and are three points behind both Manchester United and Newcastle, but both of those clubs have a game in hand on them. Their next three matches after this? Newcastle, Manchester United and Liverpool, so three points are absolutely vital in this match.
Bournemouth were looking like a certainty to be relegated, but recently they have been in a good run of form and have pulled themselves out of the relegation zone and are sitting three points clear. They've been effective offensively, playing their counterattacking style and scoring against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool. Can they do the same against Tottenham on Saturday?
Tottenham Revealing Flaws
Tottenham got away with one of the most undeserved wins in the Premier League this season against Brighton on Saturday after being the beneficiaries of a Heung-Min Son goal from outside the box and the referees missing crucial calls.
Spurs are much different than all of the other big six clubs. They are not a possession-dominant team that is going to press high and try to win the ball off you in your own half of the pitch. They have a very passive defense, but they are absolutely elite at defending their penalty area.
Spurs are best in the Premier League in final third to penalty box entry conversion rate. It's translated to the quality of chances they've allowed as well, as Spurs are third in the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed. However, that type of style doesn't really set up well unless their opponent is a very possession-based type team, which Bournemouth aren't.
In their last five matches across all competitions against AC Milan, Nottingham Forest, Southampton, Everton and Brighton, Spurs have allowed 7.6 xG. Additionally, they conceded off of a set piece against Brighton, which is bad news against Bournemouth who are a top five set piece side.
Tottenham are a really good counterattacking side, but there have been some questionable offensive performances as of late. They were gifted a penalty and only created 0.7 xG from open play against Everton and 0.8 xG against Brighton.
Bournemouth Finding a Surprising Rhythm
We need to have a conversation about the Bournemouth offense at the moment, as it is absolutely cooking. Since January 21st, Bournemouth have created 16.1 xG in 11 matches. That's the seventh-most in the Premier League during that time frame, but they have only scored 10 goals during that time. The Cherries have a low-block counterattack style, which is similar to how Tottenham plays.
If we go back to the beginning of the season, there was a point when we were asking ourselves when is Bournemouth going to score? In two separate periods before the World Cup break they went four matches in a row without scoring. So, the turnaround from them has been unbelievable. Honestly, what they've done is taken the blue print that made Brentford so successful by prioritizing the quality of the chance rather than quantity, while also being incredibly efficient on set pieces.
Overall for the season, Bournemouth have been one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League, allowing 1.55 npxG per 90 minutes. They do play one of the deepest average defensive lines in the Premier League, but they haven't been effective in playing it.
Tottenham vs Bournemouth Pick
Tottenham are in a weird position under Christian Stellini where they're still alive for the top four, but they are not playing anything like a top four side.
Bournemouth are going to sit incredibly deep in their 4-4-1-1 structure and will look to hit Tottenham on the counter. Since their style of play is similar to that of Brentford, they should have success, considering Bournemouth created 2.0 xG in their one meeting with Tottenham this season.
Given how well Bournemouth's attack has been recently and given the fact that they've underperformed, I like the value on them to score in this match at -150.
