Tottenham vs Everton Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -134 |
| Everton Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188/+140 |
Everton lost in the EFL Cup quarterfinals on Tuesday in a penalty shootout to Fulham, but that shouldn't take away from how great their league form has been in the last month. Since their 10-point deduction, Everton have won four-of-five league matches and the Toffees are finally getting deserved results to match their impressive underlying performances throughout the entire season.
Next up for Sean Dyche's side is a trip to North London to take on Spurs, who have won consecutive matches in the league against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest. Tottenham went five matches without a win in the league, culminating in a 2-1 blown lead at home against West Ham. Ange Postecoglou's side has stabilized, but they are dealing with some underrated absences headed into Saturday's clash.
Everton are well designed tactically to cause some matchup issues for Spurs given that Tottenham's weakness in transition defense could leave opportunities for the Toffees to hit them on the break.
Here's how I'm betting Tottenham vs Everton.
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Tottenham
The key difference between the two sides in the underlying numbers is that Spurs are much worse in transition defense than Everton. Tottenham’s defense has taken a backward slide under Ange Postecoglou. Spurs have gotten away with it and actually conceded fewer goals than at this point last season because they’ve vastly improved at goalkeeper and they haven't run as poorly with the opponents' finishing against them.
If you compare Spurs' performances this season to the corresponding fixtures from last year, you begin to see a pattern emerge. Tottenham have improved marginally in their xG and goals for, which is a credit to Postecoglou's system. Spurs sold Harry Kane and didn't really replace him through summer buys and yet have produced more chances and scored more goals. That's quite a feat, but it's come at the expense of the defense.
Spurs have conceded eight fewer goals this year at this point, but most of it is down to variance and shot-stopping. The defense has actually conceded six more expected goals than it did at this point last year. Spurs are dragged down in their overall power rating because of the defense, which is the worst of the four units in this game statistically.
Tottenham rank 14th in non-penalty xG per match conceded and are 16th in final third to box entry conversion rate. That means that when teams get the ball to the final third against Spurs and get through the press, they're able to quickly get the ball into the box and create chances. Tottenham will not have key defenders and ball winners Destiny Udogie or Yves Bissouma in this match either.
Everton
When you compare last season's numbers to this season, no team has seen a bigger leap in their underlying numbers than the Toffees. Everton are well set up to hit Spurs on the break and bypass the Tottenham high press in this match by being extremely direct in possession and not trying to build out of the back against a Spurs press that is second-best in the league at forcing high turnovers.
The Toffees are aggressive defensively out of possession and rank second in the league in tackles + interceptions per 90, and they’ll be very comfortable getting into a frenetic matchup full of possession turnovers in this match.
Everton have managed to keep that aggressive defensive approach without conceding big scoring chances. Everton’s defense is top three in non-penalty xG per 90 allowed, first in big scoring chances conceded and allows the second-lowest xG per shot in the PL.
Last year, Dyche chose to be more aggressive in the hopes of maximizing the attack and scoring enough goals to remain in the top flight. It came with a drop off in defensive numbers. Now, the Toffees have kept the improved attack (7th in xG per 90) and also improved the defense.
You should regress Everton's season-long data to the priors of the last couple years, but based on purely in-season data, Everton would be power rated above Spurs.
Tottenham vs Everton
Prediction
Tottenham weren't as good as the first 10 matches under Postecoglou showed, and they weren't as bad as the five-game winless run suggested either. Tottenham are a solidly above average team with a leaky defense and questions about their ability to stop direct attacking teams. This isn't as much a bet against Spurs though as a bet on Everton continuing their sustainably-improved performance under Dyche.
I'd bet Everton at anything plus money to get a result and would also take them at +280 or better to win this match in a road upset.
