Tottenham vs Fulham Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -220 |
| Fulham Odds | +370 |
| Draw | +555 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +150 |
Tottenham entered the October international break on the top of the Premier League table following their 1-0 away victory at Luton Town. Ange Postecoglou's side remains unbeaten in the league with two draws against Arsenal and Brentford, but Spurs' lack of European competition and new playing style has provided a real jolt for the club.
Spurs will host Fulham in a London derby on 'Monday Night Football,' as the Cottagers enter this match with just one defeat in their last four contests. Fulham have lost top striker Aleksander Mitrovic and they've scored just eight goals in their first eight games, but Marco Silva's side continues to grab more than enough points to stay above the early season relegation fray.
Fulham have gotten quality production from their midfield and wide players this year, but there's some concerning indicators in their numbers headed into this matchup.
Let's dive into Tottenham vs Fulham ahead of this Monday showdown.
Tottenham
Tottenham have created at least 1.3 xG in every match they have played this season. No team in the league has attempted more shots or averaged more box entries per match. Postecoglou has turned Spurs into a ball progression machine as they rank first in expected threat, first in progressive passes + dribbles and fourth in build-up completion rate.
That has resulted in 15 expected goals, 18 goals and elite attacking output overall. Spurs lost Harry Kane to Bayern before the season and don't really have a top striker option, but they've replaced him en masse by getting surplus midfield production to add more shots per match. James Maddison is producing at an elite level in the central midfield and Spurs seem to have found a solution, playing Richarlison off the left and keeping Heung-min Son in the middle.
Spurs are getting 3.1 shots per 90 from Maddison and adding nearly three shots per match from Pape Matar Sarr. Combine that with Richarlison and Son and you now have a pretty high floor of shot production. The question is whether or not these huge leaps in shot production are sustainable, or if we're at the peak of Spurs as an attacking output.
I clearly lean toward the former, and this might be a good time to play against Spurs' attacking output. We still need to regress toward our preseason priors because the sample is just eight games, and I'd venture the next eight games will look closer to fourth or fifth in attacking production, not second-best.
Fulham
Fulham benched Raul Jimenez at striker in favor of the younger Carlos Vinicius, but that was not the reason the attack exploded for three goals and 2.2 xG in the home win against Sheffield United before the international break. The Cottagers got a vintage five shot, 0.8 xG performance from Willian and 0.6 xG and four more shots from Bobby Reid. Both wingers are over 30 and their best days are behind them, and I remain quite skeptical of how this Fulham side will continue to produce high quality chances going forward given the quality of the front three attackers.
The Cottagers' midfield with Alex Iwobi, Andreas Pereira and Joao Palhinha remains quite functional from a ball winning, pressing and ball progression perspective. That’s a major reason why Fulham are in the top half of the league in box entries, final third entries and build-up completion rate allowed. Marco Silva’s side isn’t going to let Spurs walk into their penalty area and expose their mediocre back line.
Fulham have produced the fourth-fewest xG through eight matches, with only Sheffield, Burnley and Nottingham Forest below them. There's real questions about where the goals will continue to come from going forward, even if Tottenham's aggressive style will lead to some counterattacking opportunities in transition.
Tottenham vs Fulham
Pick & Prediction
Tottenham’s attack has benefitted from some late heroics and positive game states against Sheffield United and Liverpool. I think this is a good sell high spot on Spurs as a whole, but instead of betting Fulham, I'm going to bet the under.
Spurs have overall played a very friendly schedule of opposing defenses to this point and while Fulham’s defense is quite mediocre, the weaker schedule has inflated Spurs' true talent numbers.
I’d bet under 3 goals at -105 or better.
