Astros vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - April 21, 2023

Flat risk to -120

Fading the Astros seems scary, but this is a line that 10/13 RH starters have hit. Elder has looked good thus far, hitting this in 2/3 (and the one miss was 4 vs KC in gross conditions). He’s been great since coming back up to the majors last AUG - 52 K in 52.2 IP. Astros typically struggle with their first road game after a homestand. 7 righties in the lineup, and 7 guys with a K% of 22% or higher.

Available on FanDuel. This number just seems low for Elder, given what he has done to open the year (and down the stretch last year). Elder altered his approach when he came back up in August, favoring a four-seam fastball rather than a sinker. In eight starts with this new approach, he has had 5-plus strikeouts in all but one outing, and he has had six-plus in all but two. I have him projected for 6.08 strikeouts tonight against a Houston team whose active roster has opened the year with a 23.6% strikeout rate against righties. I'll keep buying into Elder until the market views him more favorably.

Elder has some underlying concerns w/ advanced metrics. Tune into Payoff Pitch for my break down

Bet to -110