Astros vs. Red Sox Odds & Betting Predictions - August 29, 2023

Astros at Red Sox

11:10 pm • NESN

Houston Astros

0-2

6 - 2

Boston Red Sox

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Bello			4.24	12-11
J.France			3.83	11-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Astros 0-2	-1.5+162	o10.5-106	+102
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5-195	u10.5-114	-120

Tuesday 11:10 p.m.

August 29, 2023

Fenway ParkBoston

J.Turner o0.5 HR+500

0.5u

Available at FanDuel. Turner isn't typically a guy you'd covet against a righty, but JP France has massive reverse platoon splits. He has a 33.3% ground-ball rate against righties compared to 56.1% against lefties. Righties have a .471 slugging percentage off of him as a result. Turner has also shown a bit more juice recently with his barrel rate up to 9.8% in the month of August. It's still not *high*, but it's better than it was. His ISO is .266 in this span, and he has five homers, two of which have come in the past three games. The Green Monster can be a blessing and a curse, but it's more the former with Turner's fly-ball rate up to 52.9% this month. If you're looking for a Dinger Tuesday bet, Turner's my favorite for tonight.

BOS -120 (F5)

0.6u

BOS -120

0.6u

BOS -120

1.2u

Available at FanDuel. I was on Boston last night, too, which didn't go well. But my model is showing value again tonight. When the Red Sox faced JP France last week, they chased him after 2 1/3 innings as he allowed 10 earned runs down in Houston. That was a downtick in his results, but the peripherals had been lagging for a while. Over his past 10 outings, France has a 4.74 SIERA, and his hard-hit rate is about average at 38.9%. Maybe he's a guy who can outrun his peripherals, but usually that type of thing is tied to elite batted-ball data. On the opposing side, Brayan Bello held Houston to one run over seven innings last week, pushing his ERA down to 3.41 in 12 starts with more sinkers. My model has Boston at 56.9% to win, up from 54.6% implied.

Under 10.5-115

0.5u

Bet to 10 (-112)

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have scored first in just 47% of their games since last season -- 10th-lowest in MLB. The Astros have allowed their opponents to score first in just 45% of their games since last season -- fifth-lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Astros Left Handed Hitters have struck out just 17% against RHP over the last two weeks -- third-lowest in MLB. Red SoxRPs have a strikeout rate of just 21% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- third-lowest in MLB.

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MLB Public Betting

Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Red Sox are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Red Sox are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Red Sox' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Red Sox' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37
Astros	81-80	40-41	41-39	56-60	23-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6
Astros	65-91-5	37-41-3	28-50-2	45-66-5	18-24

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43
Astros	88-73	46-35	42-38	66-50	20-22

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 28th	HOU	L 5-13	-1.5 L	O 10	HOU -130
Aug 27th	LAD	L 4-7	+1.5 L	O 9.5	LAD +100
Aug 26th	LAD	W 8-5	+1.5 W	O 10	BOS +108
Aug 25th	LAD	L 4-7	+1.5 L	O 10	LAD +108
Aug 24th	@HOU	W 17-1	+1.5 W	O 8.5	BOS +125

Lance McCullers
P
McCullers is out with arm
Out
Cristian Javier
P
Javier is out with elbow
Out
Luis Garcia
P
Garcia is out with elbow
Out

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.France, P	93	5.2	3	2
RR.Montero, P	28	1.1	2	0
RH.Neris, P	11	1	0	0
RB.Abreu, P	25	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Altuve, 2B	0-5	0	0	0
2A.Bregman, 3B	3-5	2	1	2
3Y.Alvarez, DH	3-5	1	1	1
4K.Tucker, RF	1-3	0	0	0
5J.Abreu, 1B	1-3	1	0	1
6M. Brantley, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7Y.Diaz, C	0-3	1	0	0
8M.Dubon, CF	1-4	1	0	2
9J.Pena, SS	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Bello, P	82	4.2	2	2
LJ.Jacques, P	14	1	1	1
RJ.Schreiber, P	13	0.1	0	1
RJ.Winckowski, P	36	2	0	1
RM. Llovera, P	15	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	2-5	1	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	0-4	0	0	1
4M.Yoshida, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5A.Duvall, CF	2-4	1	1	1
6T.Casas, 1B	1-2	0	0	0
7T.Story, SS	0-4	0	0	0
8R.McGuire, C	0-3	0	0	0
9D.Hamilton, 2B	0-3	0	0	0