Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - April 4, 2023

Diamondbacks at Padres

8:10 pm • MLB Network

Arizona Diamondbacks

73-74

8 - 6

San Diego Padres

80-67

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Y.Darvish			4.56	8-10
Z.Gallen			3.47	17-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 73-74	+1.5-168	o7-115	+130
Padres 80-67	-1.5+137	u7-105	-155

Tuesday 8:10 p.m.

April 04, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

J.Cronenworth o0.5 RBI+250

0.5u

Piggybacking my over 0.5 hits bet as this is a good time to buy low on Cronenworth. He tends to struggle against fastballs 95+ mph, but Gallen is typically in the 93-94 range. Gallen also could struggle a bit with the new shift rules as he has a .243 wOBA allowed with a shift vs. .291 wOBA allowed with no shift. Projecting this closer to +200

J.Cronenworth o0.5 Hits-135

BetMGM: Good time to buy low on Cronenworth who is off to a terrible start. He has been extremely unlucky with a .077 BABIP so far. He should eventually benefit from the new shift rules and Gallen is definitely going to be hurt by them. Gallen has allowed a career .247 BABIP with a shift and a .293 BABIP with no shift. Projecting this closer to -155

ARI +128

1.28u

ARI +120 (F5)

Bet365 1:29.

ARI +125

0.63u

ARI +125

1.25u

X.Bogaerts o0.5 Doubles+425

0.1u

Bet at Bet365. Taking each HR bet I like and adding Double prop to each. All for 0.1U.

X.Bogaerts o0.5 HR+750

0.75u

Bet at Caesars. Taking each HR bet I like and adding Double prop to each. All for 0.1U.

ARI +125

$1.25

SD -147 (F5)

SD -146

Under 3.5 (F5)+106

1.5u

2U on FD… Value here is too good… other .5U with odds boost

Under 3.5 (F5)+159

0.5u

fd 50% boost +106

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The Padres were 26-13 (.667) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 -- 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Trent Grisham slugged just .349 last season -- 12th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Zac Gallen allowed a SLG of just .253 vs left-handed batters last season -- second best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .156 (67-for-429) against Yu Darvish's fastball since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .262 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 40-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 29 of Padres' 72 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	78-69	38-34	40-35	37-45	40-24
Diamondbacks	74-72	35-37	39-35	34-49	39-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	61-82-4	29-42-1	32-40-3	40-40-2	21-41-2
Diamondbacks	72-69-5	35-33-4	37-36-1	41-38-4	31-30-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	80-67	45-27	35-40	48-34	31-33
Diamondbacks	73-74	38-34	35-39	42-41	30-32

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 4th	ARI	W 5-4	-1.5 L	O 8.5	SD -140
Apr 2nd	COL	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -207
Apr 2nd	COL	W 8-4	-1.5 W	O 8.5	SD -255
Apr 1st	COL	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8	COL -200
Mar 31st	COL	L 2-7	-1.5 L	O 7	COL -225

James McCann
C
James McCann has been scratched Friday.
Out
Ketel Marte
2B
Ketel Marte has been scratched Friday.
Out
John Curtiss
RP
Curtiss is out with elbow
Out

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Gallen, P	86	6	3	4
RK.Ginkel, P	11	1	1	0
RD.Jameson, P	38	2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Rojas, 3B	3-3	1	2
2K.Marte, 2B	1-5	0	0
3L.Gurriel, DH	0-4	0	1
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	0	0
5C.Carroll, LF	0-5	0	0
6J.McCarthy, RF	2-3	2	0
7A.Thomas, CF	0-3	1	0
8G.Perdomo, SS	1-1	3	3
9J.Herrera, C	2-3	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RY.Darvish, P	91	5	3	1
RN.Crismatt, P	28	1	1	3
RD. Tapia, P	12	1	0	0
RL.Garcia, P	21	0.1	0	4
RB.Honeywell, P	26	1.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Grisham, CF	1-5	1	1	1
2J.Soto, LF	2-5	1	0	0
3M.Machado, DH	0-1	0	0	0
3N. Cruz, PH	1-4	1	1	1
3N. Cruz, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4X.Bogaerts, SS	2-4	2	1	2
5J.Cronenworth, 2B	3-4	1	0	0
6M.Carpenter, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Nola, C	1-3	0	0	1
8D.Dahl, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Azocar, RF	0-0	0	0	0
8R. Odor, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9H.Kim, 3B	0-4	0	0	0