Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - April 4, 2023

Diamondbacks at Padres

8:10 pm • MLB Network

Arizona Diamondbacks

15-13

8 - 6

San Diego Padres

19-10

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Y.Darvish			4.56	8-10
Z.Gallen			3.47	17-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 15-13	N/A	N/A	N/A
Padres 19-10	N/A	N/A	N/A

Tuesday 8:10 p.m.

April 04, 2023

Petco ParkSan Diego

J.Cronenworth o0.5 RBI+250

0.5u

Piggybacking my over 0.5 hits bet as this is a good time to buy low on Cronenworth. He tends to struggle against fastballs 95+ mph, but Gallen is typically in the 93-94 range. Gallen also could struggle a bit with the new shift rules as he has a .243 wOBA allowed with a shift vs. .291 wOBA allowed with no shift. Projecting this closer to +200

J.Cronenworth o0.5 Hits-135

BetMGM: Good time to buy low on Cronenworth who is off to a terrible start. He has been extremely unlucky with a .077 BABIP so far. He should eventually benefit from the new shift rules and Gallen is definitely going to be hurt by them. Gallen has allowed a career .247 BABIP with a shift and a .293 BABIP with no shift. Projecting this closer to -155

ARI +128

1.28u

Under 3.5 (F5)-105

1.05u

Both SPs estimators lower threes - Def comb 62 Runs Prevented LY - ARI team 49 wRC+ so far - Pitcher friendly park & umpire - both SPs had reverse splits LY (7 LHBs in SDP LU) - Don't want none of ARI bullpen though

ARI +120 (F5)

Bet365 1:29.

ARI +125

0.63u

ARI +125

1.25u

X.Bogaerts o0.5 Doubles+425

0.1u

Bet at Bet365. Taking each HR bet I like and adding Double prop to each. All for 0.1U.

X.Bogaerts o0.5 HR+750

0.75u

Bet at Caesars. Taking each HR bet I like and adding Double prop to each. All for 0.1U.

Y.Darvish o5.5 Ks+100

ARI +120 (F5)

0.5u

ARI +125

$1.25

SD -147 (F5)

SD -146

ARI +120

0.6u

ARI +115 (F5)

0.5u

Under 3.5 (F5)+159

0.5u

fd 50% boost +106

Under 3.5 (F5)+106

1.5u

2U on FD… Value here is too good… other .5U with odds boost

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Tuesday MLB Betting Card
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The Padres were 26-13 (.667) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in 2022 -- 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Trent Grisham slugged just .349 last season -- 12th worst in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Zac Gallen allowed a SLG of just .253 vs left-handed batters last season -- second best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .156 (67-for-429) against Yu Darvish's fastball since the 2021 season -- best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .262 -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 7-7 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 8 of Padres' 15 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	18-11	11-4	7-7	11-5	7-6
Diamondbacks	19-9	9-6	10-3	6-4	12-5

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	13-15-1	8-6-1	5-9	7-8-1	6-7
Diamondbacks	17-10-1	9-6	8-4-1	5-5	11-5-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	19-10	10-5	9-5	12-4	7-6
Diamondbacks	15-13	9-6	6-7	6-4	8-9

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 4th	ARI	W 5-4	-	-	-
Apr 2nd	COL	W 3-1	-	-	-
Apr 2nd	COL	W 8-4	-	-	-
Apr 1st	COL	L 1-4	-	-	-
Mar 31st	COL	L 2-7	-	-	-

Corbin Burnes
SP
Burnes is out with elbow
Out
Blake Walston
SP
Walston is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Locklear
1B
Locklear is out with elbow
Out

Cristian Mena
SP
Mena is doubtful with shoulder
Doubtful

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out with elbow
Out
Griffin Canning
SP
Canning is out with achilles
Out
Will Wagner
3B
Wagner is out with oblique
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Gallen, P	86	6	3	4
RK.Ginkel, P	11	1	1	0
RD.Jameson, P	38	2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Rojas, 3B	3-3	1	2
2K.Marte, 2B	1-5	0	0
3L.Gurriel, DH	0-4	0	1
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	0	0
5C.Carroll, LF	0-5	0	0
6J.McCarthy, RF	2-3	2	0
7A.Thomas, CF	0-3	1	0
8G.Perdomo, SS	1-1	3	3
9J.Herrera, C	2-3	1	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RY.Darvish, P	91	5	3	1
RN.Crismatt, P	28	1	1	3
RD. Tapia, P	12	1	0	0
RL.Garcia, P	21	0.1	0	4
RB.Honeywell, P	26	1.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Grisham, CF	1-5	1	1	1
2J.Soto, LF	2-5	1	0	0
3M.Machado, DH	0-1	0	0	0
3N. Cruz, PH	1-4	1	1	1
3N. Cruz, DH	1-4	1	1	1
4X.Bogaerts, SS	2-4	2	1	2
5J.Cronenworth, 2B	3-4	1	0	0
6M.Carpenter, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Nola, C	1-3	0	0	1
8D.Dahl, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Azocar, RF	0-0	0	0	0
8R. Odor, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9H.Kim, 3B	0-4	0	0	0