Orioles vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - September 22, 2023

Orioles at Guardians

11:10 pm • BSGL

Baltimore Orioles

3-3

8 - 9

Cleveland Guardians

4-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Bieber			3.80	6-6
D.Kremer			4.12	13-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 3-3	N/A	N/A	N/A
Guardians 4-3	N/A	N/A	N/A

Friday 11:10 p.m.

September 22, 2023

Progressive FieldCleveland

CLE -120

BAL +100

$1.00

Over 7.5-122

0.5u

Bet to 8 (-113)

Over 8-110

0.91u

CLE +100

0.5u

SPs have similar estimators about 1/2 run above ERA - BAL small wRC+ edge v RHP (just under 10 pts) - CLE far better defense - BAL pen estimators about 1/3 run better L30 days - Home field makes CLE a slight favorite for me.

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The Guardians are just 21-21 (.500) when they've scored in the first inning this season -- tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .609.

Josh Naylor is batting .358 with RISP this season -- sixth best among hitters with at least 228 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Opponents are hitting .311 (38-for-122) against Dean Kremer with RISP this season -- fourth worst among qualified SPs-- eighth Percentile.

Adam Frazier has an OPS of just .654 since last season -- fifth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Emmanuel Clase has allowed an OPS of just .510 (560 PAs) since last season -- fifth best among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Dean Kremer has located his pitches away 56% of the time (1,539/2,746) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% -- 100th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (393/611) this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 41% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 4-3 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Guardians' last 5 games

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	4-3	N/A	4-3	N/A	4-3
Orioles	2-4	2-4	N/A	2-3	0-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	3-4	N/A	3-4	N/A	3-4
Orioles	3-3	3-3	N/A	2-3	1-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	4-3	N/A	4-3	N/A	4-3
Orioles	3-3	3-3	N/A	3-2	0-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 21st	BAL	W 5-2	-	-	-
Sep 20th	@KC	L 2-6	-	-	-
Sep 19th	@KC	L 6-7	-	-	-
Sep 18th	@KC	L 4-6	-	-	-
Sep 17th	TEX	W 9-2	-	-	-

Heston Kjerstad
LF
Kjerstad is out with hamstring
Out
Jordan Westburg
3B
Westburg is out with elbow
Out
Jackson Holliday
2B
Holliday is out with hand
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Kremer, P	91	3.1	3	3
RT.Wells, P	19	2	1	0
RS.Fujinami, P	8	0.2	0	0
LD.Coulombe, P	17	0.1	1	1
RJ.Lopez, P	19	1	1	0
LD.Hall, P	19	0.2	0	0
RY.Cano, P	8	0.1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1G.Henderson, SS	2-4	3	1
2A.Rutschman, C	1-5	1	0
3A.Santander, RF	3-4	1	3
3R.McKenna, PR	0-0	1	0
3R.McKenna, LF	0-0	1	0
4R.O'Hearn, 1B	1-3	1	0
5A. Hicks, CF	1-4	0	2
5A. Hicks, LF	1-4	0	2
5A. Hicks, RF	1-4	0	2
6A.Hays, LF	0-3	0	0
6C.Mullins, PH	0-2	0	0
6C.Mullins, CF	0-2	0	0
7H.Kjerstad, DH	0-3	0	0
7J.Mateo, PR	0-0	0	0
7J.Mateo, DH	0-0	0	0
8J.Westburg, 2B	0-3	0	0
8A.Frazier, PH	0-1	0	0
8A.Frazier, 2B	0-1	0	0
9R.Urias, 3B	2-4	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Bieber, P	81	5	5	4
RJ.Karinchak, P	20	1	1	0
RE.De Los Santos, P	23	1	1	1
RR.Lopez, P	11	1	1	0
RE.Clase, P	28	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	2-5	1	0
2J.Ramirez, 3B	2-5	1	1
3J.Naylor, 1B	2-3	2	1
4K. Calhoun, DH	1-3	0	2
4R.Laureano, PH	0-1	0	0
4R.Laureano, DH	0-1	0	0
5A.Gimenez, 2B	2-4	1	1
6G.Arias, SS	0-5	0	0
7W.Brennan, RF	2-4	2	1
8B.Naylor, C	0-1	1	0
8D.Fry, C	1-3	0	2
9M.Straw, CF	1-4	1	1